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EURUSD: Still Faces Upside Threats Despite Price Hesitation.

April 30, 2013 in Forex Analysis

EURUSD: The pair continues to maintain its upside bias triggered from the 1.2744 level though hesitating. As long as it continues to trade and hold above the 1.2955 level, further upside offensive is expected towards the 1.3201 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3250 level where a break will call for a run at the 1.3300 level. Above here will create scope for more upside towards the 1.3350 and then the 1.3318 level. The alternative scenario will be a return to the 1.2955 level to occur where a violation will aim at the 1.2850 level. Below here will aim at the 1.2750/35 levels, its key support levels with cut through here targeting the 1.2700 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its short term upside bias.

AUD/JPY Near The Support Of 3 Combined Forces

April 28, 2013 in Chart Alert

AUD/JPY has been in a sideways mode for past 11 trading days after falling from 105.43. The current price action is just above the short-term trend line support as well as the 55-day EMA support. The trend line support is just below 100.00 and the current 55-day EMA is at 100.03. While these 2 support levels are almost at the same place, the psychological support of 100.00 should add to this combined support.

AUD/JPY Weekly Chart

AUD/JPY trend line - weekly chart

AUD/JPY Daily Chart

AUDJPY daily chart

You may also like to check the weekly forecast of AUD/JPY.

USD/CHF Around Two Psychological Levels

April 28, 2013 in Chart Alert

We are just posting the chart which makes it clear that overall USD/CHF is stuck around the two psychological levels of 0.9000 and 0.9500. There is no clear trend and another observation is that the recent highs are getting lower. The first at 0.9567, second at o.9554 and the third was at 0.9527. The recent resistance came just 2 pips below 0.9500 i.e. at 0.9488. We will be careful for any upward position.

USD/CHF weekly chart

 

USDCHF continues to be in volatile sideways range

USD/CHF and 200-day moving average

USD/CHF and 200 day moving average

You may also like to check the weekly forecast of USD/CHF.

GBP/USD’s Break Over Resistance But What Next?

April 28, 2013 in Chart Alert

GBP/USD had broken over the volatile sideways move by a strong break over 1.5411 but the pair is now struggling with the psychological pressures of 1.5500 level.

We are just posting some of the observations in the following charts indicating the possible resistances of next retracement levels as well as 200-day SMA.

GBP/USD and 200-day moving average

GBP/USD inching towards 200-day moving average

GBP/USD break over 38.2% retracement

GBP/USD broke over 38.2 percent retracement level

 

You may also like to check the weekly forecast of GBP/USD.

USD/JPY At 5 Week Support Level Again

April 28, 2013 in Chart Alert

For past 5 months the price action of USD/JPY has been mainly above 5-Week EMA level and this level has been coming as support continuously except 3 times. The point to be noted that all these breaks took place recently during past 9 weeks. It is natural also as the psychological pressure of first the 95.00 level and then 100.00 level came into picture. The current price is again at that support level.

USD/JPY and 5-Week EMA support

 

USD/JPY weekly chart - 5 week EMA support

The two efforts to test 100.00 level has created a double top formation on the daily chart. The formation will complete if a break of neckline support takes place. The theoretical neck line is at 95.80 but due to the brief break below 97.42 we can consider 97.42 as neck line. The various supports are indicated in the chart below.

USD/JPY daily chart and various supports

USD/JPY daily chart - double top formation

You may also like to check the weekly forecast for USD/JPY.

EUR/USD Failed To Sustain The Momentum

April 27, 2013 in Chart Alert

EUR/USD had gone as high as 1.3201 after a break over 200-day moving average resistance but could not sustain. The upward move had come after some struggle near 38.2% retracement of the downward move from 1.3711 to 1.2745. These two points were covered in this previous EUR/USD alert.

The currency pair was unable to sustain above these both resistance and fell before testing the 50% retracement of the above mentioned move. The fall took it below both, the 200-day moving average as well as the previous resistance of 38.2% retracement level. These two levels are now acting as resistance.

The charts below indicate the above observations.

EUR/USD and 200-day moving average

EUR/USD 200 day moving average resistance

EUR/USD and Fibonacci retracement levels

EUR/USD daily chart- Fall before testing 50 percent retracement

You may also like to check this weekly forecast of EUR/USD.

UK avoids triple-dip recession, sterling up on positive GDP data

April 25, 2013 in Forex Analysis

Fundamental analysis (25 April 2013) – The sterling received a much needed boost and quickly jumped against its major currency counterparts, including the dollar, as the UK GDP data revealed surprisingly positive results on Thursday, helping the country to avoid a looming triple-dip recession.

The Office for National Statistics’ preliminary data showed that the UK’s GDP grew with a better-than-expected pace for the first quarter of 2013, registering a 0.3% rise, while the year-on-year figure showed a 0.6% increase. These figures gave a significant relief for the otherwise troubled UK economy.

Following the news, the sterling shot to $1.5408 at the time of writing, after previously trading in the range of %1.5270 – $1.5330. Analysts expect the positive trend to continue for the rest of the trading day.

EUR/USD

Meanwhile, the euro climbed against the dollar in Asian trading on Thursday, as worst-than-expected US Durable Goods data released yesterday weighed on the greenback. The single currency managed to recover slightly after its earlier drop below the 1.30 mark on poor economic figures fromGermany. This is the latest from a series of weak performances of Eurozone countries, which sparked speculations about the ECB cutting its interest rate soon.

The IFO index, which reflects on the German business sentiment, showed a second consecutive drop in April. This added even more fuel to the already worsened economic conditions as the previous day (Tuesday) revealed that the German PMI has dropped below the key 50.0 mark to 47.9.

Despite recent comments by ECB policymakers for an interest cut in case the economic activity continues downhill, some market makers consider such a step unlikely to happen during the ECB’s next meeting, since the current interest rate is already at a record-low of 0.75%.

 

Technical analysis EUR/USD

At yesterday‘s session the euro was in the 1.2965-1.3030 range while this morning the currency pair is trading at 1.3025-1.3050.

Should the euro overcome the resistance zone at 1.3045-1.3070, its aim will be reaching and testing the zone at 1.3100-1.3110. If successful, the upward trend will continue to 1.3130-1.3150. If it falls below the support at 1.3035-1.3015, the next one is expected to be at 1.3000-1.2975. In case of a breakdown, the downward trend will continue to 1.2955-1.2935.

 

Source: dfmarkets.co.uk

 

Disclaimer: The Content of these charts and analyses does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation by Delta Financial Markets to buy, sell (or refraining from making) any trade or investment. You may wish to seek independent advice before entering into transactions.

Delta Financial Markets shall not be held liable by you or any others for any decision made or action taken by you or others based upon reliance on or use of information or materials obtained or accessed through use of these technical analyses and charts. DF Markets assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon the information on this page. DF Markets shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages.

Japanese Yen Pairs And Possible Opportunities

April 23, 2013 in Chart Alert

GBP/JPY generally offers opportunities for some handsome gains (or losses, as the case may be) because of generally very high volatility.

The pair has failed miserably below 155.00 after going to as high as 153.87. The subsequent strong gains gains after the sharp fall again failed near 152.00. Not only that but for the past 3 weeks the highs have been getting lower.

GBP/JPY weekly chart

GBP/JPY weekly chart - failure below 155 and weekly highs getting lower

USDJPY - Failure below 100 -1Where would the pair go? Well, if we wish to trade for GBP/JPY (which we are doing), we will rather look at USD/JPY before trading for GBP/JPY. It is not GBP getting weaker. It is rather USD getting scared to cross the big psychological level of 100 against JPY.

USD/JPY has been failing just below 100 and that is quite natural considering such a long bearish trend much below 100. The break of 100 will be a big thing and that pressure is getting reflected in GBP/JPY.

USD/JPY is already forming a double top pattern. We would expect support near 22-day EMA i.e. 98.00 and with any failure of that a strong support near 97.40. In case that support fail then 96.00/95.80 should be the next target. In case such a move takes place then we are talking in terms of  135 pips to 200 pips range. But if such a move takes place in USD/JPY then a possible move towards 145.20 or even 142.90 cannot be ignored for GBP/JPY and hence we are talking in terms of over 500 to 700 pips from tthe current level.

The above is just the views about the possibilities and not an investment/trading advice.

 

 

 

Daily review EUR/USD (19 April 2013)

April 19, 2013 in Forex Analysis

Fundamental analysis – The euro is relatively steady against the dollar this morning, trading in a narrow range at $1.3050-$1.3075, slightly higher from its Wednesday’s low, when it plummeted from $1.3191 to $1. 3011.

Comments by German central bank governor Weidmann slumped investors’ confidence in the euro, which caused an immediate impact on its chart movement on Wednesday. Jens Weidmann signalled that the ECB could lower its interest rate and increase the size of the financial stimulus if incoming data triggers the need.

The risk of increasing the cash circulation in the Eurozone caused most market participants to close their positions in euros, which led to an avalanche-like behaviour and raised the bets against the single currency.

German economic results this morning failed to significantly boost the euro as the report showed disappointing figures in the Producer Price Index on both annually and monthly basis. The actual results did not match economists’ expectations and the index rose to the modest 0.4% for the year, while registering a decline by 0.2% in March.

Meanwhile, the dollar also experienced pressure after weak US economic data showed that the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index has dropped to 1.3 in April, opposite to expectations for an increase to 3.0. Further disappointment came from the Department of Labor, as it revealed a rise in the number of people filing for initial unemployment benefits to 352,000, from 348,000 in the previous reading.

The currency pair is expected to trade in a relatively low volatility for the rest of the day, close to the $1.3060-$1.3090 range as no significant data is due to be released for both the Eurozone and the US.

 

Technical analysis

EUR/USD

At yesterday’s session, the euro rose against the dollar from 1.3015 to 1.3090. This morning the currency pair was trading at 1.3045-1.3070.

Should the euro overcome the resistance zone at 1.3070-1.3090, its aim will be reaching and testing the zone at 1.3105-1.3130. If successful, the upward trend will continue to 1.3150-1.3170. If it falls below the support zone at 1.3060-1.3035, it will seek further support in the1.3005-1.2980 zone. In case of a breakdown, the downward trend will continue to 1.2955-1.2935.

Source: dfmarkets.co.uk

 

Disclaimer: The Content of these charts and analyses does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation by Delta Financial Markets to buy, sell (or refraining from making) any trade or investment. You may wish to seek independent advice before entering into transactions.

Delta Financial Markets shall not be held liable by you or any others for any decision made or action taken by you or others based upon reliance on or use of information or materials obtained or accessed through use of these technical analyses and charts. DF Markets assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon the information on this page. DF Markets shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages.

 

 

 

USD/CHF And Expected Supports And Resistances

April 14, 2013 in Chart Alert

We will just post this daily chart of USD/CHF to with some of the observations as follows:

1) Double top pattern: Indicates some more downward move with possible support in the range of 0.9210/0.9230. A break of that support would indicated deeper moves.

2) Previous support turning into resistance and that also makes the above point stronger.

This chart is just to indicate possible resistances and support.

USD/CHF daily chart

USD/CHF daily chart - resistances and supports

USD/CHF and 200-day moving average support and resistance

USD/CHF below 200 day moving average

You may also check the weekly forecast of USD/CHF.

GBP/USD On The Cross Roads

April 14, 2013 in Chart Alert

GBP/USD’s upward consolidation is finding resistance just below the 38.2% retracement of the downward move from 1.6381 to 1.4831.

GBP/USD daily chart with retracement levels

GBP/USD daily chart - resistance near 38.2 % retracement

While this resistance raises questions about further upward gains but on the other hand GBP/USD broke the resistance of the daily Ichimoku cloud after 3 months and the fall on Friday found the support exactly at the upper edge of the cloud and that indicates that if a break over 1.5422 takes place then some more upward consolidation takes place. While saying this please also note that overall the price action is near strong resistance zone which also brings in the pressure of 1.5500 psychological level.

GBP/USD and daily Ichimoku Cloud

GBP/USD break over daily Ichimoku cloud

Please also check the weekly GBP/USD forecast.

EUR/USD Struggling With 200-Day Moving Average And 38.2% Retracement

April 13, 2013 in Chart Alert

This update is in continuation with this previous chart alert for EUR/USD. Please note that in the previous update we had purposefully ignored the low of 1.2745 and had considered 1.2750 as the low. This was because 1.2745 can be considered as a brief market noise. However 5 pips in such a big move do not really matter.

EUR/USD has been struggling around 200-day moving average resistance and has not been able to sustain over it. But more importantly as we had mentioned in the previous alert, the resistance is coming near 38.2% retracement level of the big fall.

EUR/USD  daily chart

EUR/USD at 38.2 % retracement resistance

Please also check weekly EUR/USD forecast.