USD/JPY - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Japanese Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years for longer-term views. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts, we also update USD/JPY daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading USD/JPY:

 

 

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Aug 04, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-08-04 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) went down to 97.58 but found strong support well above the support of 96.95 mentioned by us during the last weekend. The strong upward jump took the currenct pair to 99.95 before the weekly closing at 98.95.

USD/JPY And The Resistances Ahead - Forex Chart Alert

Written By : forexabode || 2013-08-03 23:05:06 GMT

In the previous chart alert for USD/JPY we had indicated about the psoobilities for deeper consolidation and also the resistance near 99.40. Well, the pair did consolidate to 97.58 but then recovered strongly to 99.95.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jul 28, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-07-28 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) broke below the 99.04 support and then even fell below 98.23. The currency pair went as low as 97.96 before closing for the week at 98.27. The break below 98.23, which had proved to be a strong support during last to last week, brought the near-term bearish sentiments in the picture for further consolidation towards 96.83/96.95. On the downside we will expect a good support in this range.

USD/JPY's Bearish Break - Forex Chart Alert

Written By : forexabode || 2013-07-27 22:06:04 GMT

USD/JPY, once again, failed to sustain over 100.00 and fell. Not only that but it broke below 98.23 and that casts some bearish shadows for short-term.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jul 21, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-07-21 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) went down but found a strong support well over 98.23. The currency pair jumper strongly from 98.89 and broke over 100.00 once again. Then as we had mentioned during the last weekend, the upward gains continued to 100.77 and the pair even broke that resistance to touch 100.86 before closing for the week strongly at 100.60.

Is The Honeymoon Over For USD/JPY?

Written By : forexabode || 2013-07-14 00:51:44 GMT

We had discussed some of the supports and resistances in this previous chart alert of USD/JPY. As we had indicated, once the resistances were taken out, the pair had moved up not only to test 100.00 but went as high as 101.53. However the upward moves could not sustain and the subsequent fall took the pair to as low as 98.23. The current price action is around 55-day EMA. Will the fall continue or not is the big question now.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jul 14, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-07-14 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) had broken over the resistances mentioned in the previous update 2 weeks back and the pair then moved up not only to 100.00 but went up to 101.53 before falling back to 98.23. The weekly closing was at 99.21. The strong fall below the psychological 100.00 and then below 99.28 make the near-term outlook bearish once again for USD/JPY.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jun 30, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-06-30 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) broke both the resistances mentioned by us during last weekend and touched 90.45 before closing for the week at 99.13. The break over 99.28 is the first indication that we can expect some more upward gains. However, there is one minor obstacle of 99.45 as indicated in this USD/JPY chart alert. Moreover considering the psychological aspects of 100.00 resistance we will be cautious.

USD/JPY And The Fear Of 100

Written By : forexabode || 2013-06-29 05:09:00 GMT

USD/JPY had found strong support over 200 day moving average and also over the 38.2% retracement of  the move from 77.13 to 103.73. The upward gains were finding resistance near the 55-day EMA. All these facts were mentioned in this chart alert for USD/JPY. Last week the pair finally broke over the 55-day EMA resistance.

USD/JPY Testing 55-Day EMA Resistance

Written By : forexabode || 2013-06-23 01:36:59 GMT

We had mentioned that USD/JPY is near a very strong support zone of 93.46 to 93.56. 93.46 was 200-day moving average support and 93.56 was the 38.2% retracement for the move from 77.13 to 103.73. Our suggestion was for a cautious approach for any short-selling position. This was indicated in this previous chart alert for USD/JPY.

Interest Rate difference of USD and JPY

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
0.10%
USD/JPY interest rate comparison
0.15%

Overall price-action trend of USD/JPY

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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