USD/JPY - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Japanese Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years for longer-term views. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts, we also update USD/JPY daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading USD/JPY:

 

 

USD/JPY Talking

Written By : himanshu || 2013-11-07 09:38:54 GMT

USD/JPY Wants the break desperately! Are you with it? What is required is just one push 99.00 or shall we say 99.17. Well, issues will be there around 99.65 but then what it needs is your best wishes. Go baby go :) Listen, USD/JPY is  Talking

USD/JPY - What The Charts Are Saying?

Written By : forexabode || 2013-11-04 03:15:00 GMT

USD/JPY got a medium strength bullish signal by daily Ichimoku cloud when Tenkan line crossed over Kijun line within the cloud. The previous bullish crossover was on October 15th and was a weak signal as the crossover was below the cloud. The price action, that time, had found a strong resistance at the upper edge of the cloud and had taken a sharp dip.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Oct 26, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-10-26 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) had broken above the resistance of 98.20 which we had mentioned during the last weekend but a strong resistance came 28 pips over that and the strong fall from 98.48 took the currency pair to 96.94 before the closing for the week at 97.40.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Oct 19, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-10-19 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) had gone down to 96.56 after the last update of the outlook 2 week's back. The subsequent upward moves failed at 99.00 and the currency pair fell to 97.55 before closing for the week at 97.11. After remaining in a volatile sideways mode for 5 days, the pair failed well below the previous resistance zone of 99.13 to 99.17 and then broke below the sideways range.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Oct 05, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-10-05 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) broke the supports we had mentioned 2 weeks back and then moved as we had indicated. The currency pair fell to 96.93 before closing for the week at 97.47.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Sep 20, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-09-20 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) had broken below 99.01 support and then the pair had moved as we had indicated during the last weekend. The pair even had even broken below the mentioned 97.88 but the break was brief and not decisive in nature. The support came just 12 pips below this support level. USD/JPY jumped up from 97.76 to 99.67 before closing for the week at 99.35.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Sep 14, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-09-14 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) broke over 99.95 and then moves as we had indicated during the last weekend. The currency pair went as high as 100.61 but found resistance and dropped to 99.01 before closing for the week at 99.19.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Sep 08, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-09-08 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) had jumped up to 100.22 but found resistance and fell before reaching 101.53 as we had indicated 2 weeks back. The strong fall took the currency pair to 98.54 before it closed for the week at 99.10.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Aug 25, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-08-25 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) rose from 96.91 to go as high as 99.14 before closing for the week at 98.73. The break over the recent resistance trend line indicate the bullish sentiments and with any decisive break over 99.20, further gains towards 99.80/99.85 are expected. However the pair is once again in the psychological resistance zone of the 100.00 ranges and hence caution will be needed for any long positions.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Aug 18, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-08-18 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) broke the resistance of 97.60 mentioned by us during the last weekend. The currency pair then went into sideways mode before touching 98.56. A strong resistance took it to 97.05 before the price action closed for the week at 97.52. The support during last to last week at 95.80 proved to be quite strong but it was expected because of the psychological ranges of 95.00.

Interest Rate difference of USD and JPY

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
0.10%
USD/JPY interest rate comparison
0.15%

Overall price-action trend of USD/JPY

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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