USD/JPY - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Japanese Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years for longer-term views. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts, we also update USD/JPY daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading USD/JPY:

 

 

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jan 26, 2014 

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-01-26 00:00:00 GMT

  USD/JPY Weekly Outlook And Predictions USD/JPY fell sharply to go as low as 102.00 before closing for the week at 102.39.   The strong fall after a continuous resistance of 105.00 took out the support 102.85 which was the low of  the Dojii styled daily candle of  January 13, 2014. Not only that but the fall broke the support of not only the upper edge but also the lower edge of the daily Ichimoku cloud.

USD/JPY is in a sensitive support zone

Written By : forexabode || 2014-01-24 14:35:13 GMT

USD/JPY moved as we had expected and indicated in the previous chart alert "USDJPY May Go Deeper For Further Consolidation". The pair has completed the 38.2% retracement of the upward move from 96.94 to 105.44.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Dec 29, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-12-29 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY had found support at 102.50 after the previous update which was 2 weeks back. The support had come 24 pips below the support mentioned by us and quoted above. The pair then moved as indicated in the Forex Daily Dose a couple of days back and ultimately broke over 105.00 to go as high as 105.18 before closing for the week at 105.16 quite bullishly.

USD/JPY 2014 Outlook - Is 110 a question of "when" not "whether"?

Written By : forexabode || 2013-12-28 05:50:11 GMT

USD/JPY had remained under pressure of the psychological barrier of 105.00, for a long time, after touching 103.73 during May 2013. The price action was contained in a triangular pattern for 6 months before the pair ultimately broke out of that pattern recently. The long awaited hit took place last week when the pair broke over 105.00 key level first time after October 2008 i.e. in more than past 5 years.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Dec 14, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-12-14 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY broke over 103.37 and then moved as we had indicated during the last weekend. The pair even broke over 103.73 to touch go as high as 103.92 before falling to 102.99 and closing for the week at 103.25. The highlight of the last week was a break above 103.73. This break came after nearly 7 months wait. USD/JPY had touched 103.73 on May 22, 2013 but had fallen from there to remain in a very volatile sideways range for so many months.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Dec 07, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-12-07 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY had gone up to 102.88 as mentioned during the previous update. The pair then broke that resistance to move as high as 103.37 but then dropped strongly to 101.62 before jumping up again to 102.96 and closing for the week, bullishly, at 102.91. The overall price-action is indicating the underlying bullish outlook for USD/JPY. Especially the break over 103.00 and then the strong support over 101.60.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Nov 30, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-11-30 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY went as high as 102.61 and found some resistance there before closing for the week at 102.44. The break over the resistance zone of 102.48 to 102.52 of May 28th and 29th keep the bullish outlook intact for USD/JPY. If support over 101.80 holds then a break over 102.61 should take the pair first towards 102.88 and then possibly to retest 103.73.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Nov 17, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-11-17 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY broke some important resistance levels and with that moved as we had indicated during the last weekend. The currency pair went as high as 100.43 before closing for the week at 100.18. Our outlook for USD/JPY has turned towards bullish side for the near-term. This is specifically with the decisive break of the 200-day moving average and also the triangle pattern which was keeping the pair contained inside.

USD/JPY - Does this break confirms it?

Written By : himanshu || 2013-11-13 05:51:07 GMT

We had covered the possibilities of USD/JPY's break over the 200-day moving average after 3 failed attempts to sustain above it in the post "USD/JPY Talking". The break of that resistance had finally taken place. 200-day moving average break We had also talked about the resistance of 99.63 to 99.67 in the old post "USD/JPY - What the charts are saying".

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Nov 09, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-11-09 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY had moved towards the resistance zone of 99.40/99.67 which we had indicated 2 weeks back. After touching 99.41 the pair had fallen sharply to 97.61 before jumping back and touching 99.22 and then closing for the week at 99.04. The highlight of the week was a decisive break over 200-day moving average. This level has been proving a strong resistance September 30th.

Interest Rate difference of USD and JPY

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
0.10%
USD/JPY interest rate comparison
0.15%

Overall price-action trend of USD/JPY

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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