USD/JPY - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Japanese Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years for longer-term views. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts, we also update USD/JPY daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading USD/JPY:

 

 

USD/JPY Fundamentals and Economic Strength Meter - July 5, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-04 19:28:22 GMT

The USD/JPY fundamentals are updated weekly. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The USD/JPY economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strength or weakness of the recent economic releases and news from the U.S. and Japan, which may affect the relative strength of U.S.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - June 19, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-06-19 05:59:01 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 101.82 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook:  USD/JPY failed to sustain the attempt of recovery and fell to 101.74. The price is near the previous support of 101.72. Any break of that support will be the first signal to expect a topping but a better indication for the same will only come with a break below 101.60.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - June 18, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-06-18 05:44:08 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 102.18 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook:  Overall outlook stays neutral for today though some further gains can not beruled out if support holds near 101.80. As we had mentioned yesterday that the recent support at 101.61 was third in a row when we saw that the subsequent lows have been getting higher.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - June 17, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-06-17 05:47:40 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 101.98 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook:  USD/JPY's Latest Analysis): The recent support at 101.61 was third in a row when we saw that the subsequent lows have been getting higher. The low of May 21st had failed to retest 100.75 and considering both these points we can expect some further gains in the coming days.

USD/JPY - Further upside is favored

Written By : himanshu || 2014-06-08 01:48:00 GMT

This USD/JPY update follows the previous post titled "USD/JPY Should See Some More Gains But Caution Needed". The previous post had indicated gains towards 102.75 resistance. The currency pair had moved that way and touched 102.79 before retreating back and then jumping again. Let's look into the charts to see what they indicate.

USD/JPY should see some more gains but caution needed

Written By : himanshu || 2014-06-03 02:10:10 GMT

This update follows yesterday's update where we had mentioned that USD/JPY should gain 36 to 59 pips. Well, as of now the currency pair has gained 48 pips. Some more gains are surely expected but the current price action is near some key resistance levels.

USD/JPY - Will go up by 36 pips or 59 pips?

Written By : himanshu || 2014-06-02 12:04:41 GMT

USD/JPY had tried to breach 101.43 support but just by 1 pip. The pair had jumped up from 101.42. purely from technical and price-action point of views, the recent moves have a bit or story to tell. And well, that story may be a base to predict the immediate future moves of USD/JPY. To start with, the USD/JPY is clearly fallen into a sideways mode between the psychological levels of 100.00 and 105.00.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - May 26 to 30, 2014 

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-05-24 02:33:33 GMT

USD/JPY had dropped sharply to touch 100.82 but then recovered strongly to 102.01 before closing for the week at 101.98.  The break below 101.20 brought in some bearish sentiments in an otherwise overall neutral outlook.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - May 19 to 23, 2014 

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-05-17 01:41:26 GMT

USD/JPY moved up initially to 102.36 but found resistance near the 55-day EMA and 200-day moving average and fell to 101.31 before closing at 101.51. As we had had mentioned during the last weekend, the price action is near critical support levels and that is keeping the outlook neutral for USD/JPY. The pair has been continuously finding support over 101.20, after touching the low of 101.75.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - May 13, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-05-13 05:35:16 GMT

USD/JPY Daily and 4-Hourly Charts USD/JPY 4-Hourly Chart       USD/JPY Daily Chart       The Forex technical analysis for USD/JPY is updated daily.

Interest Rate difference of USD and JPY

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
0.10%
USD/JPY interest rate comparison
0.15%

Overall price-action trend of USD/JPY

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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