USD/JPY - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Japanese Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years for longer-term views. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts, we also update USD/JPY daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading USD/JPY:

 

 

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - July 23, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-23 02:05:26 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 101.38 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: Down. USD/JPY had found resistance just below the 55-day EMA last time. This time the resistance came much below that level and the currency pair could not sustain above 22-day EMA. 2 weeks back the daily Ichimoku cloud had given a strong bearish crossover signal when the Tenkan line had moved below Kijun line with the crossover taking place below the cloud.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - July 22, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-22 02:13:22 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 101.49 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: Down. USD/JPY found support at 101.08 after the previous support at 101.06. This fact suggests the psychological fear of entering the 100.00 ranges and that the pair is not ready to break below 100.75 of first week of February 2014.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis & Economic Strength Meter - July 20, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-19 19:24:37 GMT

The USD/JPY fundamental analysis is updated weekly. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The USD/JPY economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strength or weakness of the recent economic releases and news from the U.S. and Japan, which may affect the relative strength of U.S.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - July 16, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-16 03:56:35 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 101.71 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: Down. USD/JPY went as high as 101.76 and in doing so moved as we had indicated yesterday. The current price-action is just below te 55-day EMA resistance, which is at 101.82.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - July 15, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-15 02:36:47 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 101.56 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: Down. The brief move to 101.06 and a strong support there suggests that the psychological support of 100.00 ranges is well into the picture and the pair is not ready to break below 100.75 of first week of February 2014. Though the overall outlook is still neutral but we expect some further gains if the support stays at or above 101.20.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - July 14 to 18, 2014 

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-12 19:14:16 GMT

USD/JPY failed to retest and move beyond last week's high of 102.26 and fell from 102.20 to as low as 101.06 before closing for the week at 101.33.  As we had indicated during the last week that 102.38 of July 18th may be a crucial resistance for USD/JPY, the fall before testing that level brought in bearish sentiments in the picture, once again.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis & Economic Strength Meter - July 12, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-11 17:37:14 GMT

The USD/JPY fundamental analysis is updated weekly. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The USD/JPY economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strength or weakness of the recent economic releases and news from the U.S. and Japan, which may affect the relative strength of U.S.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - July 11, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-11 03:10:02 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 101.31 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: Down. The brief break below 101.23, when the currency pair touched 101.06 have made the bearish sentiments a bit stronger. However, considering the fact that this break was very brief and the pair did not test the psychological ranges of 100.00, we stay neutral initially.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - July 10, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-10 04:00:06 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 101.32 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook:  The sharp fall of USD/JPY after failing to sustain over 102.00 has made the bearish sentiments stronger. However the currecnt price-action is very close to the previous strong support of 101.23.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - July 7 to 11, 2014 

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-05 19:24:23 GMT

USD/JPY continued the upward moves from 101.23 to 102.26 before closing for the week at 102.27. All the dips of USD/JPY have been failing to retest February beginning's 100.75. That clearly indicates that 100.00 ranges have been proving to be a strong psychological support. However, the overall price-action is range bound and does not really offer much opportunity to trade with this currency pair.

Interest Rate difference of USD and JPY

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
0.10%
USD/JPY interest rate comparison
0.15%

Overall price-action trend of USD/JPY

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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