USD/JPY - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Japanese Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years for longer-term views. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts, we also update USD/JPY daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading USD/JPY:

 

 

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jul 11, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-07-11 00:00:00 GMT

Fundamentals(Recent economic releases): 1) US: The International Monetary Fund increased its forecast for global economic growth while warning that financial-market turmoil has increased the risks to the recovery. 2) US: The International Council of Shopping Centers trade group said U.S. retail sales probably expanded at an average monthly rate of 4 percent in the first five months of the retail fiscal year that began Jan.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - June 27, 2010 -ForexAbode.com

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-06-27 00:00:00 GMT

Current 89.22 Trend:Downtrend. Outlook: Sideways with bearish outlook. Please refer daily charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly charts. Fundamentals(Recent economic releases): 1) US: GDP annualized release negative. Growth of 2.7% in the first quater against estimate issued last month of 3%. 2) US: Reports this week showed U.S.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - June 13, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-06-13 00:00:00 GMT

Current 91.66 Trend:Volatile Sideways. Outlook: Sideways with expectation for some more upwards correction. Please refer daily charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly charts. Fundamentals(Recent economic releases): 1) US: Reuter/Michigan preliminary release shows consumer confidence as 75.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - June 06, 2010 

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-06-06 00:00:00 GMT

Current 91.99

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - May 30, 2010 -ForexAbode.com

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-05-30 00:00:00 GMT

Current 91.06 Trend:Weak Sideways with an upward correction expected. Outlook: Sideways. Please refer daily charts and not short-term charts e.g.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - May 23, 2010 

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-05-23 00:00:00 GMT

Current 90.01 Trend:Weak downtrend. Outlook: Sideways. Please refer daily charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly charts. Fundamentals: 1) US: PPI (Producer Price Index) releases- unexpected drop. 2) US: CPI (Consumer Price Index) releases- unexpected drop.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - May 16, 2010 

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-05-16 00:00:00 GMT

Current 92.46 Trend:Sideways. Outlook: Sideways with bearish mood. Please refer daily charts and not short-term charts e.g.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - May 09, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-05-09 00:00:00 GMT

Current 91.58

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - May 02, 2010 

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-05-02 00:00:00 GMT

Current 93.83 Trend:Very weak uptrend. Outlook: Sideways. Fundamentals: 1) US: Housing market: Existing and grew more than expected. 2) US: Economy expanded at 3.2% annual rate during first quarter. 3) US: Consumer spending grew at the fastest pace in 3 years during first quarter.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Apr 25, 2010 

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-04-25 00:00:00 GMT

Fundamentals: 1) US: Housing market: New Home sales rose by 27% in March which is most in 5 decades. Existing home sales also better than expected. 2) US: Durable Goods orders ex transportation increased by 2.8% though overall Durable Goods orders fell.

Interest Rate difference of USD and JPY

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
0.10%
USD/JPY interest rate comparison
0.15%

Overall price-action trend of USD/JPY

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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