USD/JPY - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Japanese Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years for longer-term views. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts, we also update USD/JPY daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading USD/JPY:

 

 

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jun 19, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-06-19 00:00:00 GMT

Current 80.05 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: PPI (Producer Price Index) ex Food & Energy (YoY) - Slightly better than the forecasts but same as the previous release. 2. US: Retails Sales (MoM) data - slightly better than the forecasts but quite negative as compared to the previous release. 3. US: Producer Price Index (YoY) - positive as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jun 12, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-06-12 00:00:00 GMT

Current 80.32 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: Consumer Credit Change report positive as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 2. US: Trade Balance data positive as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 3. US: Monthly Budget Statement was quite better than the forecasts but less than the previous release. 4.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - May 22, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-05-25 00:00:00 GMT

Current 81.69 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: NY Empire State manufacturing Index negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 2. US: Net Long-term TIC Flows report negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 3. US: Building Permits report (MoM) quite negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 4.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - May 15, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-05-15 00:00:00 GMT

Current 80.79 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: Concerns being raised about balance of budget and fiscal instability. 2. US: Import Price Index (YoY) report was positive as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. The Month on Month (MoM) data was less than the previous release but much better than the forecasts. 3. US: Trade Balance report - negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 4.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - May 08, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-05-08 00:00:00 GMT

Current 80.62 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): Please refer daily charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly charts. 1. US: Nonfarm payroll very positive as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. Excluding government jobs, employment jumped by 268,000, the most in five years. 2. US: Unemployment rate rose to 9 percent, the first gain since November.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - May 01, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-05-01 00:00:00 GMT

Current 81.19 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): Please refer daily charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly charts. 1. US: The Dollar Index slipped 0.1 percent to 73, extending its monthly decline to 3.8 percent 2. US: The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment rose to 69.8 from March’s 67.5 reading that was the lowest since November 2009 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Nov 28, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-11-28 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: Sentiments in favor of USD  that stronger-than-forecast economic data and the Federal Reserve’s $600 billion Treasury purchase program will fuel more growth. 2. US: Nonfarm payrolls rose for the second rise in as many months, according to a Bloomberg survey of 56 economists before a report next week. 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Nov 14, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-11-14 00:00:00 GMT

Current 82.52 Trend:Correction during Downtrend. Outlook: Some more upward correction. Please refer daily charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly charts. Fundamentals(Recent economic releases): 1. US: The Fed began a second round of unconventional monetary easing by acquiring $7.23 billion of Treasuries in attempt to drive down borrowing rates to help reduce unemployment and avert deflation.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Nov 07, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-11-07 00:00:00 GMT

Current 80.38 Trend:Correction during Downtrend. Outlook: Volatile sideways/some more upward correction. Please refer daily charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly charts. Fundamentals(Recent economic releases): 1. US: Fed plans to purchase more treasuries of US Dollar 600 Billion. 2. US: Personal Income report showed negative data as compared to the previous release as well as the forecasts. 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Oct 31, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-10-31 00:00:00 GMT

Current 80.38 Trend:Down. Outlook: Down with slow momentum. Please refer daily charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly charts. Fundamentals(Recent economic releases): 1.

Interest Rate difference of USD and JPY

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
0.10%
USD/JPY interest rate comparison
0.15%

Overall price-action trend of USD/JPY

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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