USD/JPY - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Japanese Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years for longer-term views. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts, we also update USD/JPY daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading USD/JPY:

 

 

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Sep 18, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-09-18 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: Monthly Budget Statement: US Dollars -134.15B, negative as compared to previous -129.40B. 2. US: PPI ex food & Energy (YoY): 2.5%, slightly less than the forecasts of 2.6% but same as the previous release. The month on month data was 0.1% and negative as compared to the previous release (0.2%) as well as forecasts (0.2%). 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Sep 04, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-09-04 00:00:00 GMT

Current 76.69 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: Personal Consumption Expenditure (MoM) 0.4% - quite better as compared to the previous release (-0.1%) and slightly less than the forecasts (0.5%). Personal Income data was same as the forecasts i.e. 0.3% which was higher than the previous release of 0.2%. 2. US: pending Home Sales (MoM) - quite negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Aug 28, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-08-28 00:00:00 GMT

Current 76.69 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: Ney Home Sales for July report- negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 2. US: New Home Sales (month on month)- negative as compared to the forecasts but quite better than the previous release. 3. US: Durable Goods orders ex transportation- positive as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 4.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Aug 14, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-08-14 00:00:00 GMT

Current 76.69 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: Monthly Budget Statement: -129.4B i.e. positive as compared to the forecasts (-140.3B) but poor as compared to the previous release (-43.0B). 2. US: Trade Balance report: -53.07B i.e. negative as compared to the previous release (-50.83B) as well as forecasts (-47.50B). 3. US: Initial Jobless Claims: 395K i.e.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Aug 07, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-08-07 00:00:00 GMT

Current 76.75 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: The U.S. had its AAA credit rating downgraded for the first time to AA+ by Standard & Poor’s (S&P). 2. US: Average Hourly Earnings YoY report positive (2.3%) as compared to the previous release (1.9%). Same with Month on Month data. 3. US: Unemployment Rate data (9.1%) positive as compared to the previous release (9.2%) as well as forecasts (9.2%). 4.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jul 31, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-07-31 00:00:00 GMT

Current 76.75 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: New Home Sales- negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. New Home Sales month on month data also negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts 2. US: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index- quite negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jul 24, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-07-24 00:00:00 GMT

Current 78.53 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: Net Long Term TIC Flows report quite negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 2. US: Housing Starts report positive as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 3. US: Building permits data positive as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 4.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jul 17, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-07-17 00:00:00 GMT

Current 79.13 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: Trade Balance data - negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 2. US: Monthly Budget Statement - Positive as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 3. US: Producer Price Index (Ex Food & Energy)- Both MoM and YoY reports were positive as compared to the previous releases as well as forecasts. 4.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jul 03, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-07-03 00:00:00 GMT

Current 80.83 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: Consumer Confidence report- negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 2. US: Reuter/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index- negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 3. US: ISM Manufacturing report- positive as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 4.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jun 26, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-06-26 00:00:00 GMT

Current 80.45 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: Existing Home Sales Change report- negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. The Existing Home Sales MoM data was slightly better than the forecasts but quite negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 2. US: Jobless Claims data - negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 3.

Interest Rate difference of USD and JPY

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
0.10%
USD/JPY interest rate comparison
0.15%

Overall price-action trend of USD/JPY

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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