USD/JPY - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Japanese Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years for longer-term views. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts, we also update USD/JPY daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading USD/JPY:

 

 

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Nov 27, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-11-27 00:00:00 GMT

Current 77.72 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: New Home Sales (MoM): 1.3%, better than the forecasts of 0.0% but quite less than the previous 3.4%. 2. US: New Home Sales (October): 0.307M, little better than the previous 0.303M but slightly less than the forecasts of 0.312M. 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Nov 20, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-11-20 00:00:00 GMT

Current 77.13 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: PPI ex Food & Energy: 2.8%, slightly less than the forecasts of 2.9% but better than the previous release of 2.5%. 2. US: Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM): 0.6%, positive as compared to the forecasts a0.2%) as well as the previous release (0.5%). 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Nov 13, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-11-13 00:00:00 GMT

Current 77.13 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: Consumer Credit Change: 7.39 Billion Dollars, positive as compared to the forecasts (US$ 5.20 B) as well as the previous release (US$ -9.68 B). 2. US: RICS Hosing Price Balance: -24, slightly negative as compared to the forecasts as well as the previous release of -23. 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Oct 30, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-10-30 00:00:00 GMT

Current 75.81 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: Housing Price Index (MoM): -0.1%, negative as compared to the forecasts (0.1%) as well as the previous release (0.0%). 2. US: Consumer Confidence: 39.8, negative as compared to the forecasts (46.2) as well as the previous release (46.4). 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Oct 23, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-10-23 00:00:00 GMT

Current 76.24 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: Industrial Production (MoM): 0.2% which was same as the forecasts but better than the previous release of 0.0%. 2. US: PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.2%, same as the forecasts but better than the previous 0.1%. The month on month data was 2.5% and same as the previous release but better than the forecasts of 2.2%.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Oct 16, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-10-16 00:00:00 GMT

Current 76.79 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: Trade balance, US Dollar -45.6 B, slightly better than the previous release ($-46.30 B) but less than the forecasts (-46.30 B Dollar). 2. US: Retail Sales (MoM): 1.1%, positive as compared to the forecasts (0.5%) as well as the previous release (0.3%). 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Oct 09, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-10-09 00:00:00 GMT

Current 76.79 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: ISM Price Paid: 56.0 and positive as compared to the previous release (55.5) as well as forecasts (54.3). 2. US: ISM Manufacturing: 51.6 and positive as compared to the previous release (50.6) as well as forecasts (50.5). 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Oct 02, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-10-02 00:00:00 GMT

Current 76.57 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: New Home Sales (MoM): -2.3% and negative as compared to the previous (-0.3%) release as well as forecasts (-1.0%). 2. US: Total New Home Sales for August: 0.295M hence negative as compared to the previous release (0.302M) as well as forecasts (0.296M). 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Sep 11, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-09-27 00:00:00 GMT

Current 77.58 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: ISM Non-Manufacturing 53.3: positive as compared to the previous release (52.7) as well as forecasts (51.3). 2. US: Trade Balance US$ 11.97B: positive as compared to the previous release (USD 11.35B) as well as forecasts (USD 5.40B). 3. Japan: Leading Economic Index (prelim) 106.0: positive as compared to the previous release (103.3) as well as forecasts (105.9). 4.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Sep 25, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-09-25 00:00:00 GMT

Current 76.57 Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. Building Permits (MoM): 0.620 M and hence positive as compared to the previous release (0.597 M) as well as forecasts (0.600 M). 2. US: Housing Starts (MoM): 0.571 M and hence negative as compared to the previous release (0.601 M) as well as forecasts (0.590 M). 3.

Interest Rate difference of USD and JPY

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
0.10%
USD/JPY interest rate comparison
0.15%

Overall price-action trend of USD/JPY

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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