USD/JPY - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Japanese Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years for longer-term views. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts, we also update USD/JPY daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading USD/JPY:

 

 

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Mar 25, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-03-25 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US($): Existing home Sales Change: -0.9%, negative as compared to the forecasts (1.1%) as well as the previous 5.7%. 2. US($): Leading Indicators (MoM): 0.7%, positive as compared to the forecast (0.7%) as well as the previous 0.2%. 3. US($): New Home Sales: 0.313M, negative as compared to the expectations of 0.325M as well as the previous 0.318M.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Mar 11, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-03-11 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US ($): Nonfarm Payrolls: 227K, quite better than the forecasts of 210K, though less than the previous 284K. 2. US ($): Factory Orders (MoM): -1.0%, positive as compared to the forecast of -1.5% but quite negative as compared to the previous 1.4%. 3. US ($): ISM Non-Manufacturing: 57.3, positive as compared to the forecasts (56.1) as well as the previous 56.8. 4.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Mar 03, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-03-03 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US ($): Durable Goods Orders: -4.0%, quite negative as compared to the forecasts (-1.0%) as well as the previous 3.2%. 2. US ($): Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation: -3.2%, negative as compared to the forecasts (0.0%) as well as the previous 2.2%. 3. US ($): Consumer Confidence: 70.8, quite positive as compared to the forecasts (63.0) as well as the previous 61.5. 4.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Feb 19, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-02-19 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US ($): Retail Sales (MoM): 0.4%, less than the forecasts of 0.7% but better than the previous 0.0%. 2. US ($): Retail Sales ex Autos: 0.7%, positive as compared to the expected (0.5%) as well as the previous -0.5%. 3. US ($): NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: 19.53, positive as compared to the forecast (15.00) as well as the previous 13.48. 4.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Feb 12, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-02-12 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: Trade Balance: USD -48.80B, negative as compared to the forecast -48.20B Dollars as well as the previous USD -47.06B. 2. US: Reuter/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Prelim): 72.5, negative as compared to the forecast (74.3) as well as the previous 75.0. 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Feb 04, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-02-04 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. EU: German CPI (Prelim): Month on month -0.4%, slightly better than the forecasts of -0.5% but poor as compared to the previous 0.7%. The year on year data 2.0% was same as the forecast but slightly less than the previous 2.1%. 2. EU: German Retail Sales: MoM -1.4%, negative as compared to the forecast (0.8%) as well as the previous -1.0%.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jan 28, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-01-28 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. EU: Consumer Confidence (Prelim): -20.6, less than the forecast of -20.0 but better than the previous -21.3. 2. EU: German PMI (Manufacturing) -Prelim: 50.9, positive as compared to the forecast (49.2) as well as the previous release (48.4). 3. EU: German PMI (Services) -prelim: 54.5, positive as compared to the forecast (52.6) as well as the previous release (52.4). 4.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jan 21, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-01-21 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. EU: German Wholesale Price Index: YoY, 3.0%, negative as compared to the forecasts (3.2%) as well as the previous release (4.9%). Same with month on month data which was 0.0% against the forecast of 0.2% and previous 0.7%. 2. EU: Core CPI: YoY, 1.6%, same as both the forecasts as well as the previous release. 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jan 14, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-01-14 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. EU: German Trade Balance - Euro 15.1B, positive as compared to the forecasts (13.2B Euro) as well as the previous release (EUR 12.5B). 2. EU: Sentix Investor Confidence: -21.1, positive as compared to the forecasts (-21.3) as well as the previous release (-24.0). 3. EU: German Industrial Production: 3.6% against the previous 4.2%. 4.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jan 08, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-01-08 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: German PMI: 48.4, slightly positive as compared to the forecasts (48.1) as well as the previous release (47.9). 2. EU: European Union’s PMI: 46.9, same as the forecasts but slightly better than the previous 46.4. 3. EU: German Unemployment Change: -22K, positive as compared to the forecasts (-10K)as well as the previous release (-20K). 4.

Interest Rate difference of USD and JPY

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
0.10%
USD/JPY interest rate comparison
0.15%

Overall price-action trend of USD/JPY

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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