USD/JPY - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Japanese Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years for longer-term views. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts, we also update USD/JPY daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading USD/JPY:

 

 

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jul 14, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-07-14 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US (USD): Consumer Credit Change: USD 17.12B, positive as compared to the forecasts (USD 8.50B) as well as the previous 10.00B US Dollar. 2. US (USD): MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.1%, positive as compared to the previous release of -6.7%. 3. US (USD): Trade Balance USD -48.68B, less than the consensus of USD -48.80B but better than the previous release of -50.60B US Dollars. 4.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jun 23, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-06-23 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US (USD): Housing Starts: 0.708 Million, negative as compared to the forecasts (0.720 M) as well as the previous 0.744 Million. 2. US (USD): Building Permits: 0.780 Million, positive as compared to the forecasts (0.730 M) as well as the previous 0.723 Million. 3. US (USD): Interest Rate was kept same at 0.25%. 4.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jun 17, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-06-17 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US (USD): Monthly Budget Statement: USD -124.60 Billion, slightly better than the forecasts of USD -125.00B but very less than the previous 59.12B US Dollars. 2. US (USD): Producer price Index: Year on year change 0.7%, negative as compared to the forecasts (1.1%) as well as the previous 1.9%.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jun 03, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-06-03 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US (USD): Consumer Confidence: 64.9, negative as compared to the forecasts (70.0) as well as the previous 68.7. 2. US (USD): Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index: -5.1, negative as compared to the previous -3.4. 3. US (USD): ADP Employment Change: 133K, though less than the expectations of 148K but quite better than the previous 113K. 4.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - May 27, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-05-27 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US (USD): Existing Home Sales: 4.62M, positive as compared to the forecasts (4.60) as well as the previous 4.47M. The month on month change in existing home sales was 3.4% and better than the expected 3.1% and previous -2.8%. 2. US (USD): New Home Sales (MoM): 0.343M, positive as compared to the forecasts (0.335M) as well as the previous 0.332M. 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - May 12, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-05-12 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US (USD): Consumer Credit Change: USD 21.36B, quite positive as compared to the forecasts (USD 9.80B) as well as the previous 9.27B US Dollars. 2. US (USD): Jobless Claims: Initial Claims data 367K was slightly positive as compared to the forecasts (369K) as well as the previous 368K. Same with continuing jobless claim which were 3.229M against the expected 3.278M and previous 3.290M. 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - May 06, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-05-06 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US (USD): Personal Consumption Expenditure 0 Price Index: Year on year 2.1%, negative as compared to the forecasts (2.2%) as well as the previous 2.3%. 2. US (USD): Core Personal Consumption Index: Year on year 2.0% was slightly positive as compared to the forecasts as well as the previous 1.9%. Month on month change 0.2% was same as expected but better than the previous 0.1%. 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Apr 28, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-04-28 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US (USD): Consumer Confidence: 69.2, slightly negative as compared to the forecasts (69.7) as well as the previous 69.5. 2. US (USD): New Home Sales: 0.328M, better than the expected 0.320M but quite less than the previous 0.353M. The month on month change -7.1% was quite negative as compared to the forecasts (2.2%) as well as the previous 7.3%. 3.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Apr 21, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-04-21 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US$: Retail Sales (MoM): 0.8%, positive as compared to the forecasts (0.3%) but less than the previous 1.0%. 2. US$: Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM): 0.8%, positive as compared to the forecasts (0.6%) as well as the previous (0.9%). 3. US$: Net Long-Term TIC Floes: USD 10.1B, quite negative as compared to the forecasts (USD 40.0B) as well as the previous 102.4B US Dollars. 4.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Apr 14, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-04-14 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): 1. US: Monthly Budget Statement: USD -198.16B, less than the forecasts of USD 1196.00B but quite better than the previous -232.00B. 2. US: Producer Price Index: Year on year change 2.8%, negative as compared to the forecasts (3.1%) as well as the previous 3.3%. 3. US: PPI ex Food & Energy: Year on year change 2.9%, better than the forecasts of 2.8% but less than the previous 3.0%. 4.

Interest Rate difference of USD and JPY

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
0.10%
USD/JPY interest rate comparison
0.15%

Overall price-action trend of USD/JPY

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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