USD/JPY - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Japanese Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years for longer-term views. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts, we also update USD/JPY daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading USD/JPY:

 

 

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Oct 07, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-10-07 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY Outlook: US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) found support at 77.79 and then continued the upward journey and went as high as 78.97 i.e.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Sep 30, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-09-30 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY Outlook: US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) had broken over the range in which the pair had moved from August 23rd to September 5th. The upward move was very strong but it found resistance below 79.10 mentioned by us. The failure came at 79.03 and the currency pair then fell more strongly. The fall broke below the support zone of 78.06/78.20 mentioned by us.

USD/JPY Outlook - September 13, 2012

Written By : forexabode || 2012-09-13 06:20:28 GMT

USD/JPY : Today's Outlook USD/JPY had ultimately broken below the key support of 77.91. It happened after a long time and strengthened the bearish outlook. But the real test will be the break of 77.64 of June 1st.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Sep 09, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-09-09 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY Outlook The pair broke out the initial supports mentioned during last weekend and then the pair went towards mentioned strong support zone of 78.06/78.20 and found support just above that at 78.28. The weekly closing was at 78.67. Though our overall outlook for USD/JPY remains bearish but as long as the supports at 77.91 and then 77.64 are not broken, we stay neutral of the currency pair.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Aug 26, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-08-26 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY Outlook The pair broke out the initial supports mentioned during last weekend and then the pair went towards mentioned strong support zone of 78.06/78.20 and found support just above that at 78.28. The weekly closing was at 78.67. Though our overall outlook for USD/JPY remains bearish but as long as the supports at 77.91 and then 77.64 are not broken, we stay neutral of the currency pair.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Aug 19, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-08-19 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY Outlook: Dollar-Yen pair broke out of the range and also broke the resistance of 79.20 mentioned by us during last weekend. USD/JPY went as high as 79.57 and closed bullishly at 79.56 for the week. Though our overall outlook for USD/JPY remains bearish but the price action of last week indicates some more upward consolidation.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Aug 12, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-08-12 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY Outlook: Last week we had mentioned consolidation towards 55-day EMA or 78.95 but it failed below that i.e. at 78.79. USD/JPY remained in the sideways mode below 78.80 and over 77.91 before the currency pair closed for the week at 78.27. Though our overall outlook for USD/JPY is bearish but the price action of past two weeks indicates some extended sideways moves below the resistance of 78.80.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Aug 05, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-08-05 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY Outlook: USD/JPY remained in the sideways mode even though it tried to break both the low and high of the last to last week.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jul 29, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-07-29 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY Outlook: USD/JPY went as low as 77.94 and failed to test the mentioned 77.64 low. The currency pair then recovered to go up to 78.67 before closing for the week at 78.42. Though our overall outlook for USD/JPY is bearish and a break of the low of July 16th had made that bearish outlook stronger but the price action of last week indicates that initially we can expect some more upward consolidation.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jul 22, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-07-22 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY - Fundamentals (Recent economic releases): USD/JPY - Technical and Market perception: 1) ADX: USD/JPY daily +DI line moved below -DI line rather strongly after a couple of quick and unconvincing crossovers.

Interest Rate difference of USD and JPY

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
0.10%
USD/JPY interest rate comparison
0.15%

Overall price-action trend of USD/JPY

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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