USD/JPY - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Japanese Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years for longer-term views. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts, we also update USD/JPY daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading USD/JPY:

 

 

USD/JPY Continuously Finding Support Near 5-Day EMA

Written By : himanshu || 2013-01-06 00:59:35 GMT

Since November 14th, USD/JPY has been continuously finding support near 5-day EMA. These was a brief pause in the momentum during November 22nd to December 11th when the pair had fallen into sideways move. During that time also the support came near 22-day EMA. Please check the following chart of USD/JPY. USD/JPY Daily Chart:

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jan 06, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-01-06 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) had broken over the key resistance of 85.51 mentioned by us a couple of weeks back. The strong upward momentum took the currency pair to as high as 88.41 before the pair closed for the week at 88.15. Since November 14th the support is mainly coming near 5-day EMA. At a couple of occasions when there was a break of the 5-day EMA support then next support came at 22-day EMA.

USD/JPY Breaks Over 85.00

Written By : forexabode || 2012-12-27 00:44:21 GMT

USD/JPY Broke over the psychological level of 85.00 first time since April 2011. After the Tsunami hit Japan on March 11, 2011 with an earth quake of 9.0 magnitude on Richter scale, they Japanese Yen had gone down to 76.59 on March 16th 2011 but then had recovered to touch 85.52 on April 5th 2011. This was the first time for USD/JPY to hit 85 since mid September 2010.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Dec 22, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-12-22 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY Outlook: US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) remained into a volatile sideways mode mainly above 83.80 and below 84.50. There were a couple of attempts to break above this range when the pair went as high as 84.61 but could not sustain.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Dec 09, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-12-09 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY Outlook: US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) remained into a volatile sideways mode between 82.83 and 81.68. The currency pair once again touched the recent high of 82.83 but could not break it. The distance of opening price and closing price with the lows and highs of Friday clearly indicate mixed sentiments.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Dec 02, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-12-02 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY Outlook: US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) did something which we could not witness for quite some time. The pair showed a volatility of 225 pips during last week.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Nov 18, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-11-18 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY Outlook: US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) did something which we could not witness for quite some time. The pair showed a volatility of 225 pips during last week.

USD/JPY Strategic Analysis

Written By : murdaniel || 2012-10-24 13:06:45 GMT

Reconnaissance USDJPY (79.86) -Against the Japanese yen the dollar changed hands for ¥79.83, little changed from ¥79.85 Tuesday. The U.S.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Oct 21, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-10-21 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY Outlook: US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) continued its upward gains and went as high as 79.46. The currency pair found support here, ahead of the August 19th's 79.66 and went into the sideways mode during the end of the week. The weekly closing was at 79.31. The recent resistance was a natural one because of the psychological pressure of 80.00 level.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Oct 14, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-10-14 00:00:00 GMT

USD/JPY Outlook: US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) had fallen strongly to 77.94 but recovered from there to touch a weekly high of 78.58 before closing for the week at 78.40. As mentioned last weekend, the overall outlook of USD/JPY stays bearish but the rising bottoms and the movement in the converging channel with the attempts of breaks on both sides and not sustaining those keep us neutral for the currency pair.

Interest Rate difference of USD and JPY

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
0.10%
USD/JPY interest rate comparison
0.15%

Overall price-action trend of USD/JPY

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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