USD/JPY - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Japanese Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years for longer-term views. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts, we also update USD/JPY daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading USD/JPY:

 

 

Daily review of USD/JPY (10 April 2013)

Written By : dfmarkets || 2013-04-10 10:48:10 GMT

The yen once again proved to be the highlight of the Forex market, tumbling against all major counterparts and reaching a four –year low against the dollar on Tuesday. The Japanese currency was only 34 pips away from 100.00 per dollar at yesterday’s session, before sliding a bit and hovering around the 99 level since then.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Mar 09, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-03-09 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) had dropped to 90.86 but found support near 55-day EMA and then broke the critical psychological resistance of 95.00. The currency pair, then, went as high as 96.57 but lost momentum and closed for the week at 96.00. The strong break over the psychological 95.00 keeps the bullish sentiments intact.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Feb 24, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-02-24 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) could not break over last to last week's 94.46 and stayed in a sideways mode below that. The weekly closing was at 93.41. As we had mentioned two weeks back that the psychological resistance of 95.00 has come into picture. The near-term outlook for USD/JPY remains bullish but the loss of momentum below 95.00 psychological level suggests that some downward consolidation cannot be ignored.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Feb 10, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-02-10 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) went as high as 94.06 i.e. just below the 94.20 level which we had mentioned as the beginning of resistance during last weekend. The currency pair fell sharply from there and went as low as 92.17 before closing for the week at 92.65. Please note that for past 12 weeks all the weekly candles have been green for USD/JPY.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Feb 03, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-02-03 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) did not break below 90.33 and then moved up strongly to 92.96 before closing for the week bullishly at 92.82. The currency pair touched the exact minor resistance which it had experience nearly 2 years 8 months back. The strong upward momentum even over the psychological level of 90.00 is keeping the bullish outlook intact. The support pattern which has been in place since November is also holding well.

USD/JPY's Bullish Moves Continue But With A Loss In The Momentum

Written By : himanshu || 2013-01-27 01:50:33 GMT

USD/JPY had broken above the critical psychological level of 90.00 quite smoothly. Even though after the first break when the currency pair had gone as high as 90.24, there was a strong fall to 88.06 but the equally strong recovery had taken it to as high as 91.19. On one hand the bullish sentiments are intact but recently there has been a loss of the momentum.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jan 27, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-01-27 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) had a strong fall during last week but support came 6 pips above the mentioned 88.00. The subsequent strong upward jump took the currency pair as high as 91.19 before the week's closing at 90.87. The weekly closing was 1 pip above the target mentioned by us during past weekend.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jan 19, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-01-19 00:00:00 GMT

As we had mentioned during last weekend US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) continued its upward journey and not only tested the psychological level of 90.00 but broke over it. The currency pair went as high as 90.21 before falling in a narrow sideway range around 90.00. The weekly closing was at 90.08. The break over 90.00 and even 90.20 suggests further gains.

USD/JPY Broke Over The Channel Resistance After 9 Weeks

Written By : forexabode || 2013-01-12 10:42:15 GMT

Even though the upward momentum has been strong for USD/JPY but the currency pair was still moving within a slopping up parallel channel. USD/JPY Weekly Chart The break over this channel resistance was strong and indicates that further gains can not be ignored.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jan 12, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-01-12 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) moved as we had mentioned during the last weekend. The slight drop had found support at 86.82 i.e. 19 pips above the mentioned 86.63. The pair then broke over 89.20 and went as high as 89.44 before closing for the week at 89.18. The strong momentum indicates that a test of 90.00 psychological level cannot be ignored. On the other hand this may bring some volatile sideways moves.

Interest Rate difference of USD and JPY

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
0.10%
USD/JPY interest rate comparison
0.15%

Overall price-action trend of USD/JPY

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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