USD/JPY - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Japanese Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years for longer-term views. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts, we also update USD/JPY daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading USD/JPY:

 

 

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jun 23, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-06-23 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) did not break below the strong support area mentioned during the last weekend. The pair had a sharp rise and broke above first the mentioned 96.95 and then 98.20 to go as high as 98.28 before closing for the week at 97.89.

USD/JPY Near Combined Support Levels

Written By : forexabode || 2013-06-16 00:17:54 GMT

USD/JPY weakened further and touched 93.79 during last week. The strong falls bring the bearish outlook but such a consolidation is quite natural after a long uptrend when the pair broke above the strong psychological level of 100.00 and had gone as high as 103.73.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jun 16, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-06-16 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) found support at 99.28 which was below the indicated resistance of 99.60 and fell as mentioned during the last weekend. The currency pair went as low as 93.79 before closing for the week at 94.09. If resistance near 95.81 which was the high of last Thursday holds then some further weakness is expected towards 93.56 can be seen.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jun 09, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-06-09 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) broke the indicated support of 99.00 and then moved to test as we had mentioned during the last week. The currency pair went as low as 94.98 and found strong psychological support of 95.00 ranges and closed for the week at 97.55. After such a long bearish phase when the price action remained much below 100.00, consolidation before any test of 105.00 was perfectly natural.

USD/JPY And The Expected Support Levels

Written By : forexabode || 2013-06-02 01:58:47 GMT

USD/JPY's main support level during past 7 and a half months has been 5-week EMA. Please note that it is 5-weeks and not 5-days. Apart from this the price action has been within a parallel channel and whenever the support at 5-week EMA failed, the price found support at or above the lower trend line of this channel. Recently there has been another support line emerging which is above the longer-term support line.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Jun 02, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-06-02 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) fell further during last week and went as low as 100.22 i.e. 2 pips above the support range mentioned by us during last weekend before closing for the week at 100.45. Overall the bullish outlook for USD/JPY remains in place but after such a long bearish phase of price action remaining below 100.00, a strong resistance before a test of 105.00 psychological level was well expected.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - May 26, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-05-26 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) had gone as high as 103.73 but found strong resistance well ahead of the psychological level of 105.00 and fell strongly to 100.66 before closing for the week at 101.28. The bullish outlook for USD/JPY remains in place but after such a long bearish phase of price action remaining below 100.00, the 105.00 psychological level should keep a strong resistance.

USD/JPY At 5 Week Support Level Again

Written By : forexabode || 2013-04-28 01:12:06 GMT

For past 5 months the price action of USD/JPY has been mainly above 5-Week EMA level and this level has been coming as support continuously except 3 times. The point to be noted that all these breaks took place recently during past 9 weeks. It is natural also as the psychological pressure of first the 95.00 level and then 100.00 level came into picture.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Apr 28, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-04-28 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) had recovered quite strongly from 95.80 and then had move as high as 99.88 but the pair failed below 100.00 again and after dropping to 97.56 the weekly closing was at 98.04.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - Apr 13, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-04-13 00:00:00 GMT

US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) went as high as 99.94 but failed to test the psychological 100.00 and fell to 98.09 before closing for the week at 98.40. Support level was near Tenkan-line of daily Ichimoku cloud. After being in a strong downtrend for so long and going as low as 75.36, 100.00 becomes a very strong psychological resistance and that's what we witnessed during the last week.

Interest Rate difference of USD and JPY

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
0.10%
USD/JPY interest rate comparison
0.15%

Overall price-action trend of USD/JPY

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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