USD/JPY - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Japanese Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years for longer-term views. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts, we also update USD/JPY daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading USD/JPY:

 

 

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - June 30, 2015

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2015-06-30 06:02:23 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 122.44 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: . USD/JPY dropped to a low of 121.94 and in doing so the pair broke the support of 55-day EMA. However, some psychological support of the approaching range of 120.00 was natural and that pushed the price up towards 122.60 . Overall, though we expect some more gains initially but the short-term outlook stays bearish.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - June 29, 2015

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2015-06-29 05:48:10 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 122.84 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: . USD/JPY fell strongly to 122.11 and in doing so it broke the 55-day EMA support. This support was breached first time since May 18th i.e after 41 days. The curreny pair recovered after that but the recovery was limited to below 123.25 support turned resistance (please check 4-hourly chart).

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - June 23, 2015

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2015-06-23 05:27:19 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 123.70 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: .  On technical grounds the strong jump of USD/JPY signified two forces - the short-term support line and the upper edge of the daily Ichimoku cloud. The current price action is near the resistance line of a short-term horizontal channel and just beyond that the Kijun line of daily Ichimoku cloud, which is at 124.15 keeps us neutral for upside.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - June 17, 2015

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2015-06-17 05:16:53 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 123.92 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: .   The intraday outlook has become mildly bullish with the break over the  ascending triangle. We now expect further gains towards 124.16 first and then possibly 124.40.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - June 15, 2015

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2015-06-15 04:56:22 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 123.62 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: .   The intraday outlook remains neutral for USD/JPY. The price-action is contained within a symmetrical triangle and though we favor an upward breakout but would avoid trading for short-term positions.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - June 12, 2015

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2015-06-12 04:54:47 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 123.72 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: .   The pair had found resistance at 124.16 which was almost as we had mentioned yesterday. We still remain neutral for USD/JPY and expect the resistance to hold below 124.16.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - June 11, 2015

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2015-06-11 05:30:03 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 123.66 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: . We stay neutral for USD/JPY though we favor downward pressure more than the upward pull. After touching 125.86, the pair could not break above the psychological price zone of 125 to enter 126 territory.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - January 5, 2015 to January 9, 2015 

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2015-01-04 03:59:33 GMT

USD/JPY remained in a sideways mode with a high of 120.82 and low of 118.86. The weekly closing was at 120.49. Fundamental Facts for USD/JPY There have been few economic releases from the U.S. and none at all from Japan due to holidays. The consumer confidence in the U.S. further improved from 91.00 to 92.6 and the pending home sales which grew to 4.1% from previous month's 2.1%.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - December 28, 2014 to January 2, 2015 

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-12-27 21:17:25 GMT

USD/JPY broke above the psychological 120.00 once again but remained in narrow sideways mode after touching 120.82. The weekly closing was at 120.38. Fundamental Facts The year over year consumer price index saw a drop from 2.9% to 2.4% in Japan in November. The housing starts data also came out bearish with a year over year change of -14.3% against the previous -12.3%.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - December 11, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-12-11 02:54:45 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 118.67 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: . USD/JPY jumped up strongly with a support at 117.44. Some more upward moves are expected towards 119.20 or more. However , in such case also a strong resistance is expected at 119.45. On the downside support is expected to hold at 117.90.

Interest Rate difference of USD and JPY

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
0.10%
USD/JPY interest rate comparison
0.15%

Overall price-action trend of USD/JPY

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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