USD/JPY - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Japanese Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years for longer-term views. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts, we also update USD/JPY daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

You may also like to check the following resources for trading USD/JPY:

USD/JPY - Is 110 still a dream or becoming a reality?

Written By : himanshu || 2014-09-03 11:18:18 GMT

It was December 28, 2013 i.e. over 8 months back when we had indicate that the year 2014 should see USD/JPY to target 110.00. Well, the pair failed to move beyond 105.44 and had fallen to 100.75. The psychological support of 100.00 ranges had come at rescue but since then the currency pair had been range bound. The maximum it achieved was 104.13 since then.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - September 1, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-09-01 04:22:31 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 104.26 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: . The break over 104.13 of April 4, 2004 had come as a strong suggestion that the currency pair would try to target 105.00 and beyond buts the slight break over 104.27 of recent August 4 can be taken as a confirmation for the same.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis & Economic Strength Meter - August 17, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-08-17 04:31:22 GMT

The USD/JPY fundamental analysis is updated weekly. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The USD/JPY economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strength or weakness of the recent economic releases and news from the U.S. and Japan, which may affect the relative strength of U.S.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - August 11 to 15, 2014 

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-08-10 01:01:28 GMT

USD/JPY had tried to move up but failed before last week's 103.09. The currency pair fell strongly after touching 102.93 to 101.51 before closing for the week at 102.02. The strong fall had neutralized the expectations for further gains and had brought the bearish sentiments into the picture. However, the strong support at 101.51 indicated that the support of the lower edge of the daily Ichimoku cloud may hold.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis & Economic Strength Meter - August 9, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-08-08 21:19:07 GMT

The USD/JPY fundamental analysis is updated weekly. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The USD/JPY economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strength or weakness of the recent economic releases and news from the U.S. and Japan, which may affect the relative strength of U.S.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - August 7, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-08-07 05:35:24 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 102.28 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: . The strong support witnessed at 101.78, which came 3 pips above July 27's 101.75 suggests that the short-term fall may alrady be over and another upward jump may now be expected for USD/JPY. However, considering the continuous resistance below 103.20 we stay neutral for the currency pair as long as the price-action stays below 103.20.

USD/JPY Outlook - Week of August 4th, 2014 

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-08-03 05:28:58 GMT

USD/JPY moved up as we had indicated during the last week's outlook update. The pair even broke above the indicated 102.79 to go as high as 103.09. A strong resistance brought it down to 102.33 before the week's closing at 102.61.   Two subsequent supports at 101.06 and then 101.08 had suggested that that the currency pair might have already bottomed up at 100.75.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis & Economic Strength Meter - August 2, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-08-01 17:53:50 GMT

The USD/JPY fundamental analysis is updated weekly. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The USD/JPY economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strength or weakness of the recent economic releases and news from the U.S. and Japan, which may affect the relative strength of U.S.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - July 28 to August 1, 2014 

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-27 02:26:24 GMT

USD/JPY rose sharply from 101.08 to go as high as 101.93 before closing for the week at 101.83.   The recent support at 101.08 came without a retest of the previous 101.06. This fact had suggested that the bearish sentiments were not too strong and some gains could be expected. Other point to be observed is that after long, USD/JPY has broken the trend of the highs getting lower, when it broke over 101.79.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis & Economic Strength Meter - July 26, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-25 18:30:22 GMT

The USD/JPY fundamental analysis is updated weekly. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The USD/JPY economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strength or weakness of the recent economic releases and news from the U.S. and Japan, which may affect the relative strength of U.S.

Interest Rate difference of USD and JPY

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
0.10%
USD/JPY interest rate comparison
0.15%

Overall price-action trend of USD/JPY

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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