USDJPY Outlook And Forecast

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The outlook takes into consideration any important news, economic releases, technical factors but most importantly the price-action analysis.

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement of "USD JPY". However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price data which may span many years, and is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

The weekly updates include the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar/Japanese yen. However, the projections are not only limited to the coming week but are applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly prediction we also update USD/JPY daily analysis, which presents our view about the daily price-action.

Do also check the overall USD/JPY trend taking into account the past 12 years' price-action and also the USD/JPY interest rate comparison.

Further resources for trading USD/JPY

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - July 28 to August 1, 2014 

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-27 02:26:24 GMT

USD/JPY rose sharply from 101.08 to go as high as 101.93 before closing for the week at 101.83.   The recent support at 101.08 came without a retest of the previous 101.06. This fact had suggested that the bearish sentiments were not too strong and some gains could be expected. Other point to be observed is that after long, USD/JPY has broken the trend of the highs getting lower, when it broke over 101.79.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis & Economic Strength Meter - July 26, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-25 18:30:22 GMT

The USD/JPY fundamental analysis is updated weekly. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The USD/JPY economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strength or weakness of the recent economic releases and news from the U.S. and Japan, which may affect the relative strength of U.S.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - July 25, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-25 02:29:17 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 101.89 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: . USD/JPY had found support at 101.06 first and the subsequent support had come 2 pips above that at 101.08. The failure to retest the previous support and then the break over 101.79 resistance of July 16th makes the short-term outlook slightly bullish for the currency pair.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - July 23, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-23 02:05:29 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 101.38 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: . USD/JPY had found resistance just below the 55-day EMA last time. This time the resistance came much below that level and the currency pair could not sustain above 22-day EMA. 2 weeks back the daily Ichimoku cloud had given a strong bearish crossover signal when the Tenkan line had moved below Kijun line with the crossover taking place below the cloud.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - July 23, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-23 02:05:26 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 101.38 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: Down. USD/JPY had found resistance just below the 55-day EMA last time. This time the resistance came much below that level and the currency pair could not sustain above 22-day EMA. 2 weeks back the daily Ichimoku cloud had given a strong bearish crossover signal when the Tenkan line had moved below Kijun line with the crossover taking place below the cloud.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - July 22, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-22 02:13:22 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 101.49 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: Down. USD/JPY found support at 101.08 after the previous support at 101.06. This fact suggests the psychological fear of entering the 100.00 ranges and that the pair is not ready to break below 100.75 of first week of February 2014.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis & Economic Strength Meter - July 20, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-19 19:24:37 GMT

The USD/JPY fundamental analysis is updated weekly. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The USD/JPY economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strength or weakness of the recent economic releases and news from the U.S. and Japan, which may affect the relative strength of U.S.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - July 16, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-16 03:56:35 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 101.71 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: Down. USD/JPY went as high as 101.76 and in doing so moved as we had indicated yesterday. The current price-action is just below te 55-day EMA resistance, which is at 101.82.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - July 15, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-15 02:36:47 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 101.56 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: Down. The brief move to 101.06 and a strong support there suggests that the psychological support of 100.00 ranges is well into the picture and the pair is not ready to break below 100.75 of first week of February 2014. Though the overall outlook is still neutral but we expect some further gains if the support stays at or above 101.20.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook - July 14 to 18, 2014 

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-07-12 19:14:16 GMT

USD/JPY failed to retest and move beyond last week's high of 102.26 and fell from 102.20 to as low as 101.06 before closing for the week at 101.33.  As we had indicated during the last week that 102.38 of July 18th may be a crucial resistance for USD/JPY, the fall before testing that level brought in bearish sentiments in the picture, once again.

Interest Rates (USD/JPY)

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
0.10%
USD/JPY interest rate comparison
0.15%

USD-JPY Overall Trend

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

USD/JPY trend - 10 year's historical chart of US dollar - Japanese yen

 

Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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