USD/JPY - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

USD/JPY (US Dollar - Japanese Yen) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of USD/JPY. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.


The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years for longer-term views. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.


The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts, we also update USD/JPY daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.


You may also like to check the following resources for trading USD/JPY:



USD/JPY Daily Analysis - July 27, 2015

Written By : || 2015-07-27 05:31:58 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 123.24 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: . This was the fifth time during past 47 days that USD/JPY found resistance in the same zone. This fact indicates that the psychological resistance of 125 ranges is holding and it turns us back towards bearish side.  The current price action is in a support zone of 55-day EMA as well as some previous supports which may now act as resistance.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - July 17, 2015

Written By : || 2015-07-17 05:39:58 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 124.04 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: . Though we expect some more gains towards 124.40 to 124.45 resistance zone but USD/JPY may stay in a sideways mode for some time.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - July 14, 2015

Written By : || 2015-07-14 05:47:06 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 123.35 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: . USD/JPY found resistance 2 pips below the indicated level of yesterday. We are on bearish side as long as 123.75 resistance level holds.  As we had indicated yesterda, the recent move of USD/JPY was a classical example of 200-day moving average support. On the downside we expect a support over 122.50.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - July 13, 2015

Written By : || 2015-07-13 05:25:39 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 123.32 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: . The recent move of USD/JPY was a classical example of 200-day moving average support. The price-action indicates the possibilities of further gains, especially with a break over 123.19 but we are staying neutral till any break over 123.75 does not take place.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - July 07, 2015

Written By : || 2015-07-07 05:34:36 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 122.48 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: . USD/JPY broke below 121.94 and though the break was brief but it casts bearish shadows for the coming days. Past three trading days have also indicated that 55-day EMA is now acting as resistance. The only factor which is against the bearish outlook is the approaching psychological ranges of 120.00.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - June 30, 2015

Written By : || 2015-06-30 06:02:23 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 122.44 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: . USD/JPY dropped to a low of 121.94 and in doing so the pair broke the support of 55-day EMA. However, some psychological support of the approaching range of 120.00 was natural and that pushed the price up towards 122.60 . Overall, though we expect some more gains initially but the short-term outlook stays bearish.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - June 29, 2015

Written By : || 2015-06-29 05:48:10 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 122.84 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: . USD/JPY fell strongly to 122.11 and in doing so it broke the 55-day EMA support. This support was breached first time since May 18th i.e after 41 days. The curreny pair recovered after that but the recovery was limited to below 123.25 support turned resistance (please check 4-hourly chart).

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - June 23, 2015

Written By : || 2015-06-23 05:27:19 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 123.70 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: .  On technical grounds the strong jump of USD/JPY signified two forces - the short-term support line and the upper edge of the daily Ichimoku cloud. The current price action is near the resistance line of a short-term horizontal channel and just beyond that the Kijun line of daily Ichimoku cloud, which is at 124.15 keeps us neutral for upside.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - June 17, 2015

Written By : || 2015-06-17 05:16:53 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 123.92 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: .   The intraday outlook has become mildly bullish with the break over the  ascending triangle. We now expect further gains towards 124.16 first and then possibly 124.40.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis - June 15, 2015

Written By : || 2015-06-15 04:56:22 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 123.62 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook: .   The intraday outlook remains neutral for USD/JPY. The price-action is contained within a symmetrical triangle and though we favor an upward breakout but would avoid trading for short-term positions.

Interest Rate difference of USD and JPY

USD to JPY Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
Japanese Yen (JPY) interest rate
USD/JPY interest rate comparison

Overall price-action trend of USD/JPY

Please refer the following monthly chart of 12-year historical price-action to check the overall USD/JPY trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.


Main observations for USD/JPY historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • USD/JPY has been in an overall downtrend for past 12 years.
  • The recent high has been 105.44 during the end of December 2013. Since then the pair has stuck between the psychological levels of 100 and 105.
  • The resistance of 105 also brings in the additional resistances of 50% retracement of the fall from 135.14 to 75.36 at 105.25 and 61.8% retracement of the fall from 124.16 to 75.36.
  • The price action has been nearer to 100 than 105 and this fact needs cautious approach for long-positions. However, a decisive break over 105.80 should target 108.00 next.

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