Written By : ForexAbode.com || Sunday, 10 August 2014 02:20 GMT

USD/CHF Weekly Outlook - August 11 to 15, 2014

USD/CHF, initially, inched upwards and moved over last to last week's 0.9107 to touch 0.9114 but could not sustain and fell to 0.9033 before closing for the week at 0.9054.

The slight break below 0.9037/0.9038 resistance, which was expected to turn into support raises doubts about the upward momentum. However, the break of this support was not decisive and hence we stay neutral for the downside, initially. We had mentioned during last week that initially some downward moves could be expected but a support would be expected in the range of 0.9030 to 0.9038. The moves were in line with that.

Another point to be noted is that though the currency pair tried to break below the second level support of Kijun line of the daily Ichimoku cloud but could not sustain. The recent high was 40 pips below 0.9154 which is the 38.2% retracement of the moves from 0.9839 to 0.8699 and just 2 pips below a previous key resistance level of mid-January. Considering this a hesitation before testing this resistance zone is natural and that also keeps us neutral as long as the price action does not break below 0.9037 decisively by breaking below 0.9033 again and by sustaining below that level for some extended period of time. 

On the downside if support holds at or over 0.9030 and a break over the recent 0.9107 takes place then we would expect further gains towards 0.9154/0.9156 resistance zone for the completion of the above mentioned 38.2% retracement.  If USD/CHF breaks above this resistance then it should target 0.9240/0.9250 resistance zone.

However, if the resistance at the recent 0.9114 holds and the support of 0.9030 fails then the immediate bullish outlook starts getting neutralized but even in such case we will expect a strong support in 0.9003/0.9008 support zone. A break of this support should make USD/CHF to target 0.8970 first and then possibly lower. Any failure of 0.8969 will start neutralizing the bullish outlook and any break below 0.8959 will confirm a topping to bring another fall towards 0.8856.

This is not for the next week but overall, In case the resistance near the above mentioned 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level i.e. in the range of 0.9134 to 0.9156 holds and any break below 0.8699 takes palce then the downtrend should resume again. Such a break would then target 0.8568 to 0.8630 support as we had indicated in an old post of December 16, 2013 titled "Is USD/CHF heading for a nosedive". 0.8568 was a strong support during the week of October 24,2011 and this level is slightly above the 50% retracement of the gains from 0.7069 to 0.9972, which is at 0.8520. Please also check the post titled "USD/CHF 2014 Outlook – Who Is Winning As The Safe Haven Currency?" to check on all these indicated levels.

Analyze Yourself - Various views of USD/CHF Price-Action

USD/CHF - daily chart with exponential moving averages - August 10, 2014

USD/CHF with the break of 200-day moving average resistance - August 10, 2014

USD/CHF with daily Ichimoku cloud - support ahead - August 10, 2014.

USD/CHF with weekly Ichimoku cloud indicating bullish outlook.

USDCHF with MACDn - August 10, 2014.

USD/CHF chart showing the break of the strong resistances - August 10, 2014

USD/CHF weekly chart with price-action channel support - August 10, 2014

USDCHF possibilities of resistance below 38.2% retracement level - daily chart - August 10, 2014

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