Written By : ForexAbode.com || Sunday, 17 August 2014 04:24 GMT

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis & Economic Strength Meter - August 17, 2014

The EUR/USD fundamental analysis and outlook is updated weekly. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The EUR/USD economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strength or weakness of the recent economic releases and news from the euro-zone and the U.S., which may affect the relative strength of euro versus U.S. dollar.

EUR/USD - Recent Economic Releases

Economic Fundamentals from Europe

EUR: ZEW Surveys: Euro-zone's economic sentiments survey came out with 27.3 and hence quite negative as compared to the consensus (41.3) as well as the previous 48.1. Same with German economic sentiments which was 8.6 against the expected 18.2 and previous 27.1/ German current economic situation data also came out to be quite poor at 44.3 against the previous 61.8.
EUR: German Consumer Price Index (YoY): Year on year change in the CPI was 0.8% and exactly same as the consensus but was less than the previous 1.0%. The harmonized CPI data was also 0.8% against the previous 1.0%.
EUR: Industrial Production: Year-over-year working day adjusted data was 0.0% and negative as compared to the consensus 0.1% as well as the previous 0.6%.
EUR: Average Yield on 10 Year German Federal Bond: 1.08% against the previous average of 1.20%.
EUR: German Gross Domestic Product (Q2 - preliminary): Year-over-year change in working day adjusted GDP was 1.2% against the previous 2.5%. The quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted GDP showed a negative growth of -0.2% against the previous 0.7%. The consensus was for no change.
EUR: Consumer Price Index: Year-over-year CPI was 0.4%, which was as expected and less than the previous 0.5%. The month over month CPI was -0.7% and negative as compared to the consensus (-0.6%) as well as the previous 0.1%.
EUR: Euro-zone's Gross Domestic Product (Q2 - preliminary): Year-over-year data was 0.7% and was as per the expectations and slightly less than the previous 0.9%. The quarter-over-quarter change was 0.0% and negative as compared to the consensus (0.1%) as well as the previous 0.2%.

Economic Fundamentals from the U.S.A.

USD: Monthly Budget Statement: USD -95 billion and though better than the expected -96 billion but quite poor as compared to the previous 71 billion US dollars.
USD: Retail Sales (MoM - July): 0.0%, negative as compared to the consensus as well as the previous 0.2%. Same with the retail sales ex-autos which was 0.1% against the previous month's 0.4%.
USD: Jobless Claims: Initial claims were 311K against the previous 290K. The continuing jobless claims also rose to 2.544 million from 2.519 million.
USD: Producer Price Index (YoY in July): 1.7%, negative as compared to the consensus (1.8%) as well as the previous 1.9%.
USD: Net TIC (Treasury International Capital) Flows: Total net TIC flows were USD -153.5 billion against the previous 33.1 billion. The net long term flows were USD -18.7 billion and hence quite less than the previous 18.6 billion.
USD: Industrial Production (MoM in June): 0.4%, better than the expected 0.3% but was same as the previous.
USD: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary - August): 79.2, negative as compared to the consensus (82.5) as well as the previous 81.8.

EUR/USD Economic Strength Meter ©

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EUR/USD fundamental outlook - Economic strength meter - August 17, 2014
EUR/USD fundamental outlook based of recent economic releases EUR/USD fundamental outlook based on the relative strength of the economic releases.
 

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EUR/USD Interest Rate Comparison
(For Carry Trade)
Euro
0.15%
US Dollar
0.25%
Euro-Dollar interest rate comparison
 

 

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