EUR/USD - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

EUR/USD (Euro - US Dollar) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of EUR/USD. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years and have a longer-term view. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the euro and US dollar. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term to longer-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts we also update EUR/USD daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading EUR/USD:

 

 

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - May 11, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-05-10 18:22:49 GMT

EUR/USD went as high as 1.3993 after breaking over the past 3 weeks' sideways range below 1.3903. The pair saw a heavy selling just below the psychological level of 1.4000 and fell sharply to as low as 1.3745 before closing for the week at 1.3759. The shooting star pattern of the daily candle after touching 1.3993, combined with the strong fall, indicate that we may see some more consolidation initially.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - April 13, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-04-13 00:00:00 GMT

EUR/USD rose very strongly after touching 1.3672. The upward jump took it to 1.3905 before the price-action closed for the week at 1.3884. The fall after touching the high of 1.3966 was expected as we had mentioned during the previous EUR/USD analysis on March 16th. The previous fall had extended below the expected 1.3770 and 1.3707. However, the support pattern of 200-day moving average had again worked.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Mar 15, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-03-15 00:00:00 GMT

 EUR/USD went as high as 1.3966 but hesitated ahead of the psychological resistance of 1.4000. The drop from there found support well over the week's low of 1.3933 but recovery from 1.3845 was limited to 1.3937 before the pair closed for the week at 1.3911.   Interestingly the week's low was 1.3833 and that was exactly the 61.8% retracement level of the fall from 1.4940 to 1.2042.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Feb 23, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-02-23 00:00:00 GMT

EUR/USD Outlook EUR/USD had broken over the key resistance of 1.3739 to move as high as 1.3773 but hesitated before 1.3800 and dropped to 1.3685 before closing for the week at 1.3739. The break over 1.3739 had strengthened the bullish outlook for further gains but considering the sideways moves of the last week and the fact that the daily highs have been getting lower, we stay neutral initially.

EUR/USD is in a resistance zone but focus remains upside

Written By : forexabode || 2014-02-16 04:36:59 GMT

EUR/USD's movement has been in a very volatile sideways for past 6 weeks, since the pair had faced a strong resistance at 1.3894 . However we have been in the favor of further gains as we had mentioned in an old post titled "EUR/USD 2014 Outlook – The Pair Is At Two Years High But Is It Done?".

EUR/USD Fundamentals and Economic Strength Meter - Feb 16, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-02-16 00:00:00 GMT

The EUR/USD fundamentals are updated weekly. It is one of the basis for the EUR/USD weekly outlook. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The EUR/USD economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strength or weakness of the recent economic releases and news from the euro-zone and the U.S., which may affect the relative strength of euro versus U.S.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis - Feb 11, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-02-11 00:00:00 GMT

EUR/USD's Latest Analysis (February 11, 2014): The price-action after the strong support just below the psychological 1.3500 level as well as just below the 200-day moving average suggests that the downward consolidation might be already over. The outlook now is mildly bullish. However, the current price is struggling at the resistance trend line of the short-term price-action channel.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Feb 09, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-02-09 00:00:00 GMT

EUR/USD went 3 pips below the closing of last to last week and recovered from 1.3476 to move to 1.3644 before closing for the week at 1.3655.  The first 3 days of the last week had shown a complete uncertainty which was evident in the extremely low volatility. The price jump up before the nonfarm payroll report from the U.S.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Feb 02, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-02-02 00:00:00 GMT

EUR/USD failed to break over 1.3739 and fell sharply to 1.3479 before closing for the week at 1.3485. As we can see on the fundamental outlook page, last week's economic releases did not really support this strong fall of the pair. However the price-action has brought some short-term bearish sentiments in the picture. On the other hand there are some facts which argue against the further weakness, however.

Can we expect further declines by EUR/USD?

Written By : himanshu || 2014-02-01 01:28:59 GMT

As this is a chart alert for EUR/USD and hence we will just touch upon the important facts about the price-action. The price action is indicating further fall but there are some factors which are also arguing about the same. Point 1: The recent fall broke the 200-day moving average and that brings in the bearish sentiments. Point 2: During October 2013 the pair had touched a high of 1.3832.

Interest Rate difference of EUR and USD

EUR to USD Interest Rates Comparison
 
Euro (EUR) interest rate
0.15%
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
EUR/USD interest rate comparison
0.10%

Overall Price-Action Trend of EUR/USD

Please refer the following monthly chart of 10-year historical price-action to check the overall EUR/USD trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for EUR/USD historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • Highs getting lower since the great fall during the economic crisis of 2008-2009.
  • EUR/USD faced very strong resistance near 1.5000 during past to attempts for recovery.
  • Repetitive support approximately in the range of 1.2000 to 1.2500.
  • Overall uptrend since mid-2012 and the prices are contained in a rising channel.
  • Good possibilities that  the currency pair may break over 1.4000. Incase such a break takes place then 1.4500 should be the next target.

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