EUR/USD - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

EUR/USD (Euro - US Dollar) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of EUR/USD. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years and have a longer-term view. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the euro and US dollar. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term to longer-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts we also update EUR/USD daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading EUR/USD:

 

 

EUR/USD caught between uncertainties of fundamentals and technical factors

Written By : himanshu || 2014-06-30 07:52:55 GMT

EUR/USD had touched 1.3651 on June 25th and had found strong resistance at 55-day EMA. Let's have a look on the technical side as well as the fundamentals to see what can we expect in the coming days. A view of technical side The currency pair tried to recover but since then the 55-day EMA has been proving a strong wall of resistance.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis - June 30, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-06-30 05:59:17 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 1.3654 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook:  We expect further gains if the support holds 1.3640. However, on the upside a strong resistance may be experienced at or below 1.3677. Considering this fact and the fact that though the initial signs are in favor of further upward moves, the upcoming interest rate decision of euro-zone on July 4th may keep pressure on euro.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis - June 19, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-06-19 05:44:12 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 1.3630 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook:  As we had mentioned yesterday about expected gains, the pair moved up to 1.3643 high as of now. We still expect some more gains. However the current price action is approaching the 55-day EMA which is at 1.3660 and also the previous resistance of June 9th which was 1.3668. The combination of these two resistances is keeping us neutral.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis - June 18, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-06-18 05:31:15 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 1.3568 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook:  While we remain neutral considering the heavy fall, we expect further recovery and possibilities that the recent 1.3503 may prove to be a near-term bottom.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis - June 17, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-06-17 05:34:31 GMT

Current Exchange Rate: 1.3565 at the time of analysis update. Intraday outlook:  The pair failed to break below the 1.3503 support and that indicates that the psychological support of 1.3500 is in the picture. The recent trading days saw a misalignment between GBP/USD and EUR/USD. Both these pairs have a strong positive correlation but there was a break out of that when former pair shot up while EUR/USD was going down.

How far EUR/USD may fall?

Written By : forexabode || 2014-05-28 12:00:52 GMT

The near-term bearish sentiment had become stronger for EUR/USD when the pair had broken below the previous support of 1.3443, after finding a good support 5 pips over that level once. The fact that the pair had fallen strongly, ahead of 1.4000 level can also not be missed. After touching 1.3993 and missing that important level just by 7 pips had given a strong suggestion that the currency pair is not yet ready for that landmark.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - May 26 to 30, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-05-24 02:18:21 GMT

EUR/USD failed in the attempt of the recovery below the resistance level indicated last week i.e. 1.3775. The pair went up to 1.3734 and fell sharply to touch 1.3615 before closing for the week at 1.3630. The bearish outlook has become stronger with the break below 1.3643. The recent moves also represented a decisive break of 200-day moving average support and the mid-term support trend line.

EUR/USD on the way to complete double-top chart pattern

Written By : himanshu || 2014-05-21 13:17:22 GMT

EUR/USD had gone down to 1.3648 last week and in doing so the pair had broken below the hammer styled candle of May 15th. That daily candle had created some doubts about a possible reversal and failure of the chart pattern.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - May 19 to 23, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-05-16 21:29:39 GMT

EUR/USD fell further. after some initial sideways moves, to go as low as 1.3648. Some more sideways moves followed before the price-action closed for the week at 1.3693. The break below 1.3672 has made the near-term bearish outlook stronger for EUR/USD as it also represented a slight break of the support trend line and 200-day moving average. However, we will stay neutral for further fall till there is a decisive break below 1.3643.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis - May 13, 2014

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2014-05-13 05:17:13 GMT

EUR/USD's Latest Analysis (May 13, 2014): The current price action is very close to the 200-day moving average support which is currently at 1.3697 and also the near-term trend line support. Please check the weekly outlook for the same.

Interest Rate difference of EUR and USD

EUR to USD Interest Rates Comparison
 
Euro (EUR) interest rate
0.15%
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
EUR/USD interest rate comparison
0.10%

Overall Price-Action Trend of EUR/USD

Please refer the following monthly chart of 10-year historical price-action to check the overall EUR/USD trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for EUR/USD historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • Highs getting lower since the great fall during the economic crisis of 2008-2009.
  • EUR/USD faced very strong resistance near 1.5000 during past to attempts for recovery.
  • Repetitive support approximately in the range of 1.2000 to 1.2500.
  • Overall uptrend since mid-2012 and the prices are contained in a rising channel.
  • Good possibilities that  the currency pair may break over 1.4000. Incase such a break takes place then 1.4500 should be the next target.

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