EUR/USD - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

EUR/USD (Euro - US Dollar) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of EUR/USD. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years and have a longer-term view. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the euro and US dollar. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term to longer-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts we also update EUR/USD daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading EUR/USD:

 

 

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jul 25, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-07-25 00:00:00 GMT

1) EU: A document showed the stress tests ignored the majority of banks’ holdings of sovereign debt after regulators decided against testing securities held in their banking books. 2) EU: 66 percent of Stoxx 600 companies have topped estimates, including Fiat and Accor SA.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jul 18, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-07-18 00:00:00 GMT

1) EU: Concern easing that Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis would undermine the region’s economic recovery. 2) EU: Germany- ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey data negative as compared to the expectations and previous release. 3) EU: Germany - ZEW Current Situation data unexpectedly high as compared to the expectations and previous release.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jul 11, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-07-11 00:00:00 GMT

1) EU: Trichet said Europe’s economy is stronger than some investors think. 2) Germany: PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) - Services release was positive as compared to previous release and expectations. 3) EU: PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) - Services release was positive as compared to previous release and expectations. 4) EU: Retail Sales releases for both MoM and YoY were better than the previous release and expectations.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jun 27, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-06-27 00:00:00 GMT

Current 1.2369 1) EU: credit-default swaps on Greek government debt rose to a record. 2) EU: Speculation that the Group of 20 nations will fail to agree this weekend on how to tackle Europe’s debt crisis. 3) Germany: IFO releases for Business Climate and Current Assesment better than estimated and previous release. 4) Germany: IFO Expectations release less than previous and estimated.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jun 20, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-06-20 00:00:00 GMT

1) EU: German unemployment fell twice as much as economists forecast in May and the European Commission’s business climate indicator rose to the highest in two years.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jun 13, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-06-13 00:00:00 GMT

1) EU: Debt crisis concerns remain but the sentiments improved that the issues may not have global implications. 2) EU: Germany- Trade balance release - Less than previous release and also expectations. 3) EU: Germany – Industrial Production (MoM)- less than previous release but better than expectations. 4) EU: Germany – Industrial Production (YoY)- Less than expectations but much better than previous release.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jun 06, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-06-06 00:00:00 GMT

1) EU: Debt crisis concerns remain. Hungary’s Prime Minister’s negative comments about debt gave fuel to negative sentiments about Eastern Europe economic health and though Hungary is not part of EU but EUS/USD shot down to 4 years low. 2) EU: Russian President Medvedev commented that Russia is keeping “Significant” Euro reserves. This comment came after China’s similar positive comment last week.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - May 30, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-05-30 00:00:00 GMT

Current 1.2273 1) EU: Debt crisis concerns remain. Fitch cut Spain’s credit rating from AAA to AA+.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - May 23, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-05-23 00:00:00 GMT

1) EU: Budget deficit concerns remain. 2) EU: IFO business climate and current assessment releases negative. 3) EU: IFO Expectation release was positive. 4) EU: ZEW economic sentiment releases from EU as well as Germany were less than previous and also expectation. 5) EU: CPI releases were less than previous.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - May 16, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-05-16 00:00:00 GMT

1) EU: Deficit concerns deepen. Concerns even about Euro’s survival. 2) EU: Greece has debts equivalent to 115% of GDP and economists believe that it may rise to 150% before it starts falling.

Interest Rate difference of EUR and USD

EUR to USD Interest Rates Comparison
 
Euro (EUR) interest rate
0.15%
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
EUR/USD interest rate comparison
0.10%

Overall Price-Action Trend of EUR/USD

Please refer the following monthly chart of 10-year historical price-action to check the overall EUR/USD trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for EUR/USD historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • Highs getting lower since the great fall during the economic crisis of 2008-2009.
  • EUR/USD faced very strong resistance near 1.5000 during past to attempts for recovery.
  • Repetitive support approximately in the range of 1.2000 to 1.2500.
  • Overall uptrend since mid-2012 and the prices are contained in a rising channel.
  • Good possibilities that  the currency pair may break over 1.4000. Incase such a break takes place then 1.4500 should be the next target.

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