EUR/USD - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

EUR/USD (Euro - US Dollar) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of EUR/USD. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years and have a longer-term view. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the euro and US dollar. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term to longer-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts we also update EUR/USD daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading EUR/USD:

 

 

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jun 26, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-06-26 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: Moody’s Investors Service said yesterday it may downgrade 13 Italian banks because they would be vulnerable to a cut in the government’s credit rating. 2. EU: European leaders said Greece is getting closer to meeting conditions for a rescue but the concerns about the issue remains there. 3. EU: German Producer Price Index reports for MoM as well as YoY were negative as compared to the previous releases as well as forecasts.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jun 19, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-06-19 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: Industrial Production (YoY) data less than the previous release but positive as compared to the forecasts. The Month-on-Month data positive as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 2. EU: Consumer Price Index YoY and MoM -less than the previous release but same as the forecasts. CPI Core (YoY) negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 3.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jun 12, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-06-12 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: Sentix Investor Confidence report quite negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 2. EU: Produce Price Index (PPI) Year on Year (YoY) data little less than the previous release but better than the forecasts. The PPI (MoM) data positive as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 3. EU: Retail Sales data for both MoM and YoY wuite positive as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - May 22, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-05-22 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: Concerns being raised that Greece will eventually fail to pay off its debt. Fitch Ratings downgraded Greece’s debt. Possibilities of further reduction in its creditworthiness. 2. EU: Trade balance data less than the forecasts but much better than the previous release. 3. EU: Consumer Price Index (MoM) data same as the forecasts but less than the previous release.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - May 15, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-05-15 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: Portugal’s economy shrank for a second quarter in the three months through March, putting the country back into recession. 2. EU: Concerns being raised that Greece will eventually fail to pay off its debt. Majorities predicting the same for Portugal and Ireland. 3. EU: German GDP jumped 1.5% from the 4th quarter and French GDP rose 1%, exceeding the forecasts. 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - May 08, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-05-08 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: Concerns about Greece's debt problem resurfacing. Two European officials familiar with the matter said that finance officials were meeting in Luxembourg for unscheduled talks. 2. EU: ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said that inflation risks will be watched “very closely,” signaling the ECB may wait until after June to raise interest rates. 3.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - May 01, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-05-01 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: European confidence in the economic outlook declined and inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in two and a half years. 2. EU: German Consumer Confidence report negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 3. EU: Retail Sales release (YoY) quite negative as compared to the previous release. This can be considered normal when Easter falls in April but the Month on Month retail sales data was also negative 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Nov 14, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-11-14 00:00:00 GMT

1) EU: German Trade Balance report quite positive as compared to the previous release as well as the forecasts. 2) EU: Sentix Investor Confidence report quite positive as compared to the previous release as well as the forecasts. 3) EU: Industrial Production data quite negative as compared to the previous release as well as the forecasts.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Nov 7, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-11-07 00:00:00 GMT

1) EU: German PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) for manufacturing better as compared to the previous release as well as the forecasts. 2) EU: EU PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) for manufacturing better as compared to the previous release as well as the forecasts. 3) EU: EU PMI for services report positive as compared to the previous release as well as the forecasts.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Oct 31, 2010

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2010-10-31 00:00:00 GMT

1) EU: The average price of credit-default swaps on Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain rose to 406.5 basis points from 363.5 last week.

Interest Rate difference of EUR and USD

EUR to USD Interest Rates Comparison
 
Euro (EUR) interest rate
0.15%
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
EUR/USD interest rate comparison
0.10%

Overall Price-Action Trend of EUR/USD

Please refer the following monthly chart of 10-year historical price-action to check the overall EUR/USD trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for EUR/USD historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • Highs getting lower since the great fall during the economic crisis of 2008-2009.
  • EUR/USD faced very strong resistance near 1.5000 during past to attempts for recovery.
  • Repetitive support approximately in the range of 1.2000 to 1.2500.
  • Overall uptrend since mid-2012 and the prices are contained in a rising channel.
  • Good possibilities that  the currency pair may break over 1.4000. Incase such a break takes place then 1.4500 should be the next target.

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