EUR/USD - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

EUR/USD (Euro - US Dollar) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of EUR/USD. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years and have a longer-term view. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the euro and US dollar. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term to longer-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts we also update EUR/USD daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading EUR/USD:

 

 

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Sep 18, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-09-18 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: Industrial Production (YoY): 4.2%, less than the forecasts of 4.6% but quite better than the previous 2.6%. Same with month on month data. 2. EU: CPI (YoY) remained same as the previous release and forecasts of 2.5% but the month on month data (0.2%) was quite better than the previous release of-0.6%, though same as the forecasts. The core CPI (YoY) data again was same as the previous release as well as the forecasts of 1.2%. 3.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Sep 11, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-09-11 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: German PMI Services at 51.1 was slightly better than the forecasts of 50.4 but less than the previous release of 52.9. 2. EU: European Monetary Union's PMI Services at 51.5 was slightly better than the forecasts of 50.9 but less than the previous release of 51.6. 3. EU: Retail Sales (year on year) at -0.2%: positive as compared to the previous release (-0.7%) as well as forecasts (-1.0%). 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Sep 04, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-09-04 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: CPI (YoY) prelim data - slightly less with 2.3% as compared to the previous 2.4%. 2. EU: Consumer Confidence 16.5 : slightly better than the forecasts of -16.6 but quite negative as compared to the previous release of -11.2. Economic Confidence and Industrial confidence data - quite negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 3.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Aug 28, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-08-28 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: German prelim data of PMI for Manufacturing- Same as previous release i.e. 52.0 but better than the forecasts of 51.2. 2. EU: European zone's prelim data of PMI for Manufacturing- same as the forecasts of 49.7 but less than the previous release of 50.4. 3. EU: German ZEW Survey (Current Situations)- quite negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Aug 14, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-08-14 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: Sentix Investor Confidence: Quite negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 2. EU: German Trade balance data: Negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 3. EU: German CPI data for both MoM and YoY: Same as the forecasts and better than the previous releases. 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Aug 07, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-08-07 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: Bearish sentiments and uncertainties about the debt crisis remain as it is. 2. EU: German Industrial Production data for both MoM and YoY- negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 3. EU: German factory Orders MoM report (1.8%) - positive as compared to the previous release (1.5%) as well as forecasts (-0.1%). The Year on Year data (12.1%) quite less than the previous release (23.0%). 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jul 31, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-07-31 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: IMF says that Spain is still in danger zone. Possible downgrade by Moody's Investors Service. 2. EU: German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey- slightly negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 3. EU: M3 Money Supply YoY report- negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jul 24, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-07-24 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: German ZEW Survey for Current Situations - positive as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 2. EU: German ZEW Survey for Economic Sentiments- negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 3. EU: Euro Zone ZEW Survey for Economic Sentiments- better than the forecasts but negative as compared to the previous release. 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jul 17, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-07-17 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: German Consumer Price Index - Year to year data was same as the previous release as well as the forecasts (2.3%). Month on month data was also same as the forecasts with 0.1% which was better than the previous release of 0%. 2. EU: Industrial Production data for both year on year and month on month was negative as compared to the previous releases as well as forecasts. 3.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jul 03, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-07-03 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey report - positive as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 2. EU: Consumer Confidence data- positive as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. 3. EU: German Retail Sales (MoM) report - negative as compared to the previous release as well as forecasts. The year on year data also negative as compared to the previous release. 4.

Interest Rate difference of EUR and USD

EUR to USD Interest Rates Comparison
 
Euro (EUR) interest rate
0.15%
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
EUR/USD interest rate comparison
0.10%

Overall Price-Action Trend of EUR/USD

Please refer the following monthly chart of 10-year historical price-action to check the overall EUR/USD trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for EUR/USD historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • Highs getting lower since the great fall during the economic crisis of 2008-2009.
  • EUR/USD faced very strong resistance near 1.5000 during past to attempts for recovery.
  • Repetitive support approximately in the range of 1.2000 to 1.2500.
  • Overall uptrend since mid-2012 and the prices are contained in a rising channel.
  • Good possibilities that  the currency pair may break over 1.4000. Incase such a break takes place then 1.4500 should be the next target.

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