EUR/USD - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

EUR/USD (Euro - US Dollar) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of EUR/USD. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years and have a longer-term view. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the euro and US dollar. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term to longer-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts we also update EUR/USD daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading EUR/USD:

 

 

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jan 08, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-01-08 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: German PMI: 48.4, slightly positive as compared to the forecasts (48.1) as well as the previous release (47.9). 2. EU: European Union’s PMI: 46.9, same as the forecasts but slightly better than the previous 46.4. 3. EU: German Unemployment Change: -22K, positive as compared to the forecasts (-10K)as well as the previous release (-20K). 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Nov 27, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-11-27 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey: 5.6, positive as compared to the forecasts (5.2) as well as the previous release (5.4). 2. EU: German CPI (Prelim): YoY 2.4%, same as the forecasts but little less than the previous 2.4%. Month on month date 0.0%, same as previous but little less than the forecasts of 0.1%. 3. EU: Consumer Confidence: -20.4, same as the forecasts but little less than the previous -19.9. 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Nov 20, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-11-20 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: Industrial Production (YoY): 2.2%, negative as compared to the forecasts (3.6%) as well as the previous release (6.0%). 2. EU: German GDP (YoY) n.s.a. (Prelim): 2.5%, slightly more than the forecasts of 2.4% but less than the previous release of 3.0%. Same with GDP w.d.a. also. 3. EU: ZEW Survey for Economic Sentiments: -59.1, negative as compared to the forecasts (-52.5) 4. as well as the previous release (-51.2). 5.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Nov 13, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-11-13 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: Italian banks borrowed 111.3 billion Euros from the European Central Bank at the end of October. Italy’s $2 trillion in liabilities exceed Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, combined. 2. EU: Sentix Investor Confidence: -21.2, negative as compared to the forecasts (-19.1) as well as the previous release (-18.5). 3.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Oct 30, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-10-30 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: German PMI for Services (Prelim): 52.1, positive as compared to the forecasts (49.8) as well as the previous release (49.7). 2. EU: German PMI for Manufacturing (Prelim): 48.9, negative as compared to the forecasts (50.0) as well as the previous release (50.3). 3. EU: European Union's PMI for Services: 47.2, negative as compared to the forecasts (48.6) as well as the previous release (48.8). 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Oct 23, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-10-23 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: German ZEW Survey for Economic Sentiments: -48.3, hence negative as compared to the forecasts (-44.3) as well as the previous release (-43.3). 2. EU: German ZEW Survey for Current Situation: 38.3, hence negative as compared to the forecasts (40.0) as well as the previous release (43.6). 3.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Oct 16, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-10-16 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: Germany- Trade Balance: 13.8 B Euro, quite positive as compared to the previous release (10.6 B) as well as forecasts (9.8 B). 2. EU: Germany- Current Account: 7.08 B Euro, positive as compared to the forecasts (5.0 B Euro) even though a little less than the previous release (7.8 B). 3.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Oct 09, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-10-09 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: German PMI Manufacturing: 50.3 and slightly better as compared to the previous release (50.0) as well as forecasts (50.0). 2. EU: EU's PMI Manufacturing: 48.5 and though slightly better than the forecasts of 48.4 but less than the previous 49.0. 3. EU: PPI (YoY): 5.9% which was slightly better than the forecasts of 5.8% but less than the previous 6.1%.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Oct 02, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-10-02 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: German IFO Assessment: 117.9 and better than the forecasts of 116.0 even though slightly less than the previous release of 118.1. 2. EU: German IFO expectations: 98.0 and better than the forecasts of 97.4 but less than the previous release of 100.1. 3. EU: German IFO Business Climate: 107.5 and better than the forecasts of 106.5 but less than the previous release of 108.7. 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Sep 25, 2011

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2011-09-25 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: After History's first sovereign default in 4th century BC by 10 Greek municipalities, first time Twenty-four centuries later, Greece is at the edge of the biggest sovereign default 2. EU: German PPI (MoM): -0.3 hence negative as compared to the previous release (0.7%) as well as forecasts (-0.3%). Same with year on year data which was 5.5% against the forecast and previous release of 5.8%. 3.

Interest Rate difference of EUR and USD

EUR to USD Interest Rates Comparison
 
Euro (EUR) interest rate
0.15%
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
EUR/USD interest rate comparison
0.10%

Overall Price-Action Trend of EUR/USD

Please refer the following monthly chart of 10-year historical price-action to check the overall EUR/USD trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for EUR/USD historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • Highs getting lower since the great fall during the economic crisis of 2008-2009.
  • EUR/USD faced very strong resistance near 1.5000 during past to attempts for recovery.
  • Repetitive support approximately in the range of 1.2000 to 1.2500.
  • Overall uptrend since mid-2012 and the prices are contained in a rising channel.
  • Good possibilities that  the currency pair may break over 1.4000. Incase such a break takes place then 1.4500 should be the next target.

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