EUR/USD - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

EUR/USD (Euro - US Dollar) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of EUR/USD. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years and have a longer-term view. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the euro and US dollar. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term to longer-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts we also update EUR/USD daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading EUR/USD:

 

 

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Apr 01, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-04-01 00:00:00 GMT

1. Euro: German IFO - Business Climate: 109.9, slightly positive as compared to the forecasts (109.6) as well as the previous 109.7. 2. Euro: German IFO - Current Assessment: 117.4, same as the previous release but better than the forecasts of 117.00. 3. Euro: German IFO - Expectations: 102.7, slightly positive as compared to the forecasts (102.6) as well as the previous 102.4. 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Mar 25, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-03-25 00:00:00 GMT

1. Euro: German PPI: year on year change 3.2% which was same as the forecasts but less than the previous 3.4%. The month on month data 0.4% was negative as compared to the forecast (0.5%) as well as the previous 0.6%. 2. Euro: German PMI -Manufacturing (prelim): 48.1, negative as compared to the forecasts (51.0) as well as the previous (50.2). 3.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Mar 11, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-03-11 00:00:00 GMT

1. Euro: German PMI for Services: 52.8, slightly better than the forecast of 52.6 but less than the previous 53.7. 2. Euro: EU's PMI for Services: 48.8, negative as compared to the forecasts (49.4) as well as the previous 50.4. 3. Euro: Sentix Investor Confidence: -8.2, negative as compared to the expected -5.0 but better than the previous -11.1 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Mar 03, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-03-03 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU (€): German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey: 6.0, same as the forecasts but slightly better than the previous 5.9. 2. EU (€): Consumer Confidence: -20.3, slightly negative as compared to the forecasts as well as the previous -20.2. 3. EU (€): Economic Confidence: 94.4, positive as compared to the expected 94.0 as well as the previous 93.4. 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Feb 19, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-02-19 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU (€): Industrial Production (YoY): -2.0%, negative as compared to the forecasts (-1.0%) as well as the previous 0.1%. 2. EU (€): ZEW Survey for Economic Sentiment: -8.1, quite positive as compared to the expected (-21.1) as well as the previous -32.5. 3. EU (€): German ZEW Survey for Economic Sentiments: 5.4, quite positive as compared to the forecast (-15.0) as well as the previous -21.6. 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Feb 12, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-02-12 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: Sentix Investor Confidence: -11.1, positive as compared to the forecasts (-14.3) as well as the previous release (-21.1). 2. EU: German Factory Orders: Month on month 1.7%, quite positive as compared to the forecast (1.0%) as well as the previous (-4.9%). Same with year on year data which was 0.0% against the forecasts of -0.4% and previous release of -4.3%. 3.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Feb 04, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-02-04 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: German CPI (Prelim): Month on month -0.4%, slightly better than the forecasts of -0.5% but poor as compared to the previous 0.7%. The year on year data 2.0% was same as the forecast but slightly less than the previous 2.1%. 2. EU: German Retail Sales: MoM -1.4%, negative as compared to the forecast (0.8%) as well as the previous -1.0%. Year on year data (-0.9%) was also poor against the forecasts and previous release of 0.9%. 3.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jan 28, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-01-28 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: Consumer Confidence (Prelim): -20.6, less than the forecast of -20.0 but better than the previous -21.3. 2. EU: German PMI (Manufacturing) -Prelim: 50.9, positive as compared to the forecast (49.2) as well as the previous release (48.4). 3. EU: German PMI (Services) -prelim: 54.5, positive as compared to the forecast (52.6) as well as the previous release (52.4). 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jan 21, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-01-21 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: German Wholesale Price Index: YoY, 3.0%, negative as compared to the forecasts (3.2%) as well as the previous release (4.9%). Same with month on month data which was 0.0% against the forecast of 0.2% and previous 0.7%. 2. EU: Core CPI: YoY, 1.6%, same as both the forecasts as well as the previous release. 3. EU: CPI: YoY, 2.7%, negative as compared to the forecasts (2.8%) as well as the previous release (3.0%).

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jan 14, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-01-14 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: German Trade Balance - Euro 15.1B, positive as compared to the forecasts (13.2B Euro) as well as the previous release (EUR 12.5B). 2. EU: Sentix Investor Confidence: -21.1, positive as compared to the forecasts (-21.3) as well as the previous release (-24.0). 3. EU: German Industrial Production: 3.6% against the previous 4.2%. 4. EU: German Real GDP Growth: 3.0%, same as the forecasts but less than the previous 3.6%. 5.

Interest Rate difference of EUR and USD

EUR to USD Interest Rates Comparison
 
Euro (EUR) interest rate
0.15%
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
EUR/USD interest rate comparison
0.10%

Overall Price-Action Trend of EUR/USD

Please refer the following monthly chart of 10-year historical price-action to check the overall EUR/USD trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for EUR/USD historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • Highs getting lower since the great fall during the economic crisis of 2008-2009.
  • EUR/USD faced very strong resistance near 1.5000 during past to attempts for recovery.
  • Repetitive support approximately in the range of 1.2000 to 1.2500.
  • Overall uptrend since mid-2012 and the prices are contained in a rising channel.
  • Good possibilities that  the currency pair may break over 1.4000. Incase such a break takes place then 1.4500 should be the next target.

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