EUR/USD - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

EUR/USD (Euro - US Dollar) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of EUR/USD. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years and have a longer-term view. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the euro and US dollar. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term to longer-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts we also update EUR/USD daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading EUR/USD:

 

 

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jul 14, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-07-14 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU (EUR): The concerns about Greece and Spain's debt keep the overall bearish sentiments on. 2. EU (EUR): German ZEW Survey for economic Sentiments: -16.9, quite negative as compared to the forecasts (4.0) as well as the previous (10.8). 3. EU (EUR): German ZEW Survey for Current Situation: 33.2, negative as compared to the forecasts (39.8) as well as the previous 44.1. 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jun 23, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-06-23 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU (EUR): The concerns about Greece and Spain's debt keep the overall bearish sentiments on. 2. EU (EUR): German ZEW Survey for economic Sentiments: -16.9, quite negative as compared to the forecasts (4.0) as well as the previous (10.8). 3. EU (EUR): German ZEW Survey for Current Situation: 33.2, negative as compared to the forecasts (39.8) as well as the previous 44.1. 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jun 17, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-06-17 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU (EUR): The concerns about Greece and Spain's debt keep the overall bearish sentiments on. 2. EU (EUR): German Consumer Price Index: Year on year change 1.9% was same as the consensus and less than the previous 2.1%. The month on month change -0.2% remained same as the expectations and previous release. 3.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jun 03, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-06-03 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU (EUR): The concerns about Greece's possible exit from Euro zone are growing. The possibilities of Spanish banks needing rescue also keeps the bearish sentiments on. 2. EU (EUR): German CPI (prelim): Year to year change 1.9%, negative as compared to the forecasts (2.0%) as well as the previous 2.1%. Same with the month on month change which was -0.2% against the expected -0.1% and previous 0.2%. 3.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - May 27, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-05-27 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU (EUR): The concerns about Greece's possible exit from Euro zone are growing. The possibilities of Spanish banks needing rescue also keeps the bearish sentiments on. 2. EU (EUR): Consumer Confidence (prelim): -19.3, slightly positive as compared to the forecasts (-20.0) as well as the previous -19.9. 3. EU (EUR): German GDP: Quarter to quarter change in GDP s.a. 0.5% and was same as the consensus but better than the previous -0.2%.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - May 12, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-05-12 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU (EUR): Sentix Investor Confidence: -24.5, negative as compared to the forecasts (-14.3) as well as the previous -14.7. 2. EU (EUR): Factory Orders: Year on year change -2.9% was slightly negative as compared to the expected -2.8% but quite better than the previous -4.5%. The month on month change of 2.9% was quite positive as compared to the forecasts and previous release. 3.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - May 06, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-05-06 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU (Eur): German Retail Sales: Year on year change was 2.3% against the previous 2.1%. Month on month change was 0.8% against the previous -0.9%. 2. EU (EUR): Consumer Price Index (YoY) -prelim: 2.6%, though a little higher than the forecasts of 2.5% but less than the previous 2.7%. 3. EU (EUR): German PMI for Manufacturing: 46.2, negative as compared to the forecasts (46.3) as well as the previous 48.4. 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Apr 28, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-04-28 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU (EUR): German PMI- Manufacturing (prelim): 46.3, negative as compared to the forecasts (49.0) as well as the previous 48.4. 2. EU (EUR): German PMI- Services (prelim): 52.6, slightly positive as compared to the forecasts (52.3) as well as the previous 52.1. 3. EU (EUR): EU PMI- manufacturing (prelim): 46.0, negative as compared to the forecasts (48.1) as well as the previous 47.9. 4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Apr 21, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-04-21 00:00:00 GMT

1. Euro: Consumer Price Index: Year on year change 2.7% was slightly better than the expected 2.6% but was same as the previous. The month on month change 1.3% was positive as compared to the forecasts as well as the previous 0.5%. 2. Euro: CPI Core (YoY): 1.6%, positive as compared to the forecasts as well as the previous 1.5%. 3.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Apr 14, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-04-14 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: German Trade Balance: EUR 13.6B, remained same as the forecasts but was less than the previous 15.1B Euro. 2. EU: Sentix Investor Confidence: -14.7, negative as compared to the forecasts (-8.1) as well as the previous -8.2. 3. EU: Industrial production: Year on year change -1.8K was same as the forecasts but less than the previous -1.7%. 4.

Interest Rate difference of EUR and USD

EUR to USD Interest Rates Comparison
 
Euro (EUR) interest rate
0.15%
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
EUR/USD interest rate comparison
0.10%

Overall Price-Action Trend of EUR/USD

Please refer the following monthly chart of 10-year historical price-action to check the overall EUR/USD trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for EUR/USD historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • Highs getting lower since the great fall during the economic crisis of 2008-2009.
  • EUR/USD faced very strong resistance near 1.5000 during past to attempts for recovery.
  • Repetitive support approximately in the range of 1.2000 to 1.2500.
  • Overall uptrend since mid-2012 and the prices are contained in a rising channel.
  • Good possibilities that  the currency pair may break over 1.4000. Incase such a break takes place then 1.4500 should be the next target.

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