EUR/USD - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

EUR/USD (Euro - US Dollar) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of EUR/USD. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years and have a longer-term view. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the euro and US dollar. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term to longer-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts we also update EUR/USD daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading EUR/USD:

 

 

EUR/USD broke above the resistance trend line after 1 year

Written By : himanshu || 2012-09-07 15:14:11 GMT

EUR/USD : Break of Trend Line Resistance EUR/USD broke over the resistance trend line after more than a year.  

EUR/USD outlook after ECB's press conference

Written By : himanshu || 2012-09-07 03:39:06 GMT

EUR/USD had jumped very strongly just before touching the psychological level of 125.00, before the press conference of ECB president Mario Draghi. The jump was in anticipation of the positive sentiments because of Draghi's plan about unlimited bond purchase to ease the debt crisis of suffering economies. Just before the press conference there was a strong fall for EUR/USD and then the pair jumped up when the conference started.

EUR/USD Outlook: Euro, Draghi and the storm in making

Written By : himanshu || 2012-09-06 11:18:22 GMT

The sentiments have been bearish and short-selling has continuously been at the top of the mind. But then, time and again, the bear seems to be growing horns.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Aug 26, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-08-26 00:00:00 GMT

EUR/USD Analysis/Outlook:  Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD) had a strong upward move and after breaking over the mentioned 1.2385 and 1.2443, the currency pair went to 1.2540 as mentioned during the last weekend. The pair then broke over 1.2540 after some hesitation near that level and went as high as 1.2589 and found resistance there. The correction took it as low as 1.2481 and some support came there at 5-day EMA level (green EMA line).

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Aug 19, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-08-19 00:00:00 GMT

EUR/USD Analysis/Outlook:  Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD) kept trying to break the 55-day EMA resistance but could not sustain. Last weekend we had mentioned resistance near 1.2385 and support near 1.2240 and those  resistance and supports kept on working. The currency pair moved in the sideways mode in the range of 1.2256 and 1.2385. The weekly closing was at 1.2333.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Aug 12, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-08-12 00:00:00 GMT

EUR/USD Analysis/Outlook:  Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD) kept trying to break the 55-day EMA resistance but could not sustain. Last weekend we had mentioned resistance near 1.2457. The pair found the resistance just below at 1.2443 and fell before touching the upper edge of the daily Ichimoku cloud.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Aug 05, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-08-05 00:00:00 GMT

EUR/USD Analysis/Outlook:  Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD), initially found resistance at 1.2341 and then at 1.2405 and fell sharply to 1.2133. A strong upward jump during the end of the week took it to 1.2392 before the pair closed at 1.2386 for the week. Please note that the weekly closing was just at 55-day EMA resistance level and it is yet to be seen if this resistance holds or not.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Apr 08, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-08-01 00:00:00 GMT

1. EU: German PMI for Manufacturing: 48.4, slightly better than the expected 48.1 but less than the previous 50.2. 2. EU: PMI for Manufacturing: 47.7, same as the forecasts but less than the previous 49.0. 3. EU: Unemployment Rate: 10.8%, same as the expected rate but slightly higher than the previous 10.7%. 4. EU: PPI (YoY): 3.6%, better than the expected 3.4% but less than the previous 3.8%. 5.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jul 29, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-07-29 00:00:00 GMT

EUR/USD Analysis/Outlook:  Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD) first went as low as 1.2042 and then with a strong upward jump broke above 1.2325 i.e. second resistance mentioned by us and went as high as 1.2398 before closing for the week at 1.2320.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jul 22, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-07-22 00:00:00 GMT

EUR/USD - Technical and Market perception: 1) ADX: EUR/USD daily +DI had moved below -DI line quite sharply 3 weeks back and it stays under it with a wide gap. ADX is well over 25 and rising (approx 36.50 from last weekend's 30.50). 2) MACD: EUR/USD daily MACD line had crossed over the signal line weakly but dropped downwards almost immediately to touch the signal line.

Interest Rate difference of EUR and USD

EUR to USD Interest Rates Comparison
 
Euro (EUR) interest rate
0.15%
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
EUR/USD interest rate comparison
0.10%

Overall Price-Action Trend of EUR/USD

Please refer the following monthly chart of 10-year historical price-action to check the overall EUR/USD trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for EUR/USD historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • Highs getting lower since the great fall during the economic crisis of 2008-2009.
  • EUR/USD faced very strong resistance near 1.5000 during past to attempts for recovery.
  • Repetitive support approximately in the range of 1.2000 to 1.2500.
  • Overall uptrend since mid-2012 and the prices are contained in a rising channel.
  • Good possibilities that  the currency pair may break over 1.4000. Incase such a break takes place then 1.4500 should be the next target.

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