EUR/USD - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

EUR/USD (Euro - US Dollar) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of EUR/USD. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years and have a longer-term view. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the euro and US dollar. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term to longer-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts we also update EUR/USD daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading EUR/USD:

 

 

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jan 12, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-01-12 00:00:00 GMT

Euro - U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) found support at 1.3016 and then broke over 1.3140 resistance mentioned by up during last weekend. The movement after that was same as expected and mentioned. Some hesitation came below 1.3308 but then the pair broke over that resistance very strongly and went as high as 1.3366 or 6 pips below the mentioned 1.3370 resistance. The weekly closing was at 1.3342.

EUR/USD Finding Support Near 50% Retracement Level

Written By : himanshu || 2013-01-06 00:16:31 GMT

EUR/USD had a strong upward jump during November 13th and December 19th. Subsequent to that the current pair had fallen into a sideways mode. The recent fall had broken the 38.2% retracement as well as 55-day EMA supports. These both supports were almost at the same level. The current support is coming near 50% retracement of the same move.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jan 06, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-01-06 00:00:00 GMT

Since December 16th Euro-U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) has been in a volatile sideways move over 1.3144 and below 1.3308. After continuous attempts to break over 1.3300, the pair failed and the recent drop had first broken below the sideways channel and then the pair went as low as 1.2997 before closing for the week at 1.3068.

EUR/USD Near At Trend Line Support

Written By : himanshu || 2013-01-03 11:42:48 GMT

This post is in continuation of the previous chart alert for EUR/USD. The currency pair has tried to break below 1.3100 and went as low as 1.3094. The current support is coming at the mentioned trend-line. Overall view stays same as mentioned in the previous update.  

EUR/USD Breaks Out Of The Range

Written By : himanshu || 2013-01-03 04:36:53 GMT

Since December 16th EUR/USD has been in a volatile sideways move over 1.3144 and below 1.3308. After continuous attempts to break over 1.3300, the pair failed and the recent drop has broken the sideways channel. EUR/USD Daily Chart The next trend line support is near 1.3100. The psychological support of 1.3000 ranges should also work near that level but any decisive break of that should bring some more consolidation towards 1.3060.

EUR/USD Breaking Two Support Levels

Written By : forexabode || 2012-12-22 09:58:26 GMT

This chart alert is subsequent to this previous EUR/USD alert. The currency pair managed to break the recent continuous support of 5-day EMA as well as the Tenkan-line level of daily Ichimoku cloud. Though the weekly closing was approximately at the 5-day EMA but these breaks indicate the possibilities for some more consolidation, especially after the failure to sustain over 1.3300 as mentioned in the previous alert.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Dec 22, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-12-22 00:00:00 GMT

EUR/USD Outlook:  Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD) had gone as high as 1.3308 after breaking over the May 1st, 2012's resistance of 1.3283. After this break the pair could not sustain over 1.3300 and the second attempt to break over this failed at 1.3295. After 8 day's price action over 5-day EMA, ER/USD managed to break below this support and went as low as 1.3158 before closing for the week at 1.3188 i.e.

EUR/USD Seems To Have Stuck Up

Written By : forexabode || 2012-12-21 01:23:44 GMT

EUR/USD's current price action is still near the support of 5-day EMA and this support has been working good for past few days.

EUR/USD Finding Support As Per The Recent Pattern

Written By : forexabode || 2012-12-20 04:52:00 GMT

For past 7 trading days 5-day EMA has been providing support for EUR/USD. The current support is also coming at that level. The green line is the 5-day EMA line in the following chart: EUR/USD Daily Chart From a slightly longer-term perspective the important points are that there was a recent break of the strong resistance of May 1st, 2012's 1.3283 when EUR/USD went as high as 1.3308.

Markets Today - EUR/USD's Break Over The Resistance

Written By : forexabode || 2012-12-17 02:08:49 GMT

EUR/USD had finally broken over the resistance of 1.3172 which we had covered in the Markets Today for EUR/USD on December 14th. This break is not only a long awaited break which the currency pair has been failing to touch for past 3 months but this came as another attempt to break over the 38.2% retracement level resistance of the downward move during beginning of May, 2011 and July 24, 2012.

Interest Rate difference of EUR and USD

EUR to USD Interest Rates Comparison
 
Euro (EUR) interest rate
0.15%
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
EUR/USD interest rate comparison
0.10%

Overall Price-Action Trend of EUR/USD

Please refer the following monthly chart of 10-year historical price-action to check the overall EUR/USD trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for EUR/USD historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • Highs getting lower since the great fall during the economic crisis of 2008-2009.
  • EUR/USD faced very strong resistance near 1.5000 during past to attempts for recovery.
  • Repetitive support approximately in the range of 1.2000 to 1.2500.
  • Overall uptrend since mid-2012 and the prices are contained in a rising channel.
  • Good possibilities that  the currency pair may break over 1.4000. Incase such a break takes place then 1.4500 should be the next target.

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