EUR/USD - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

EUR/USD (Euro - US Dollar) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of EUR/USD. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years and have a longer-term view. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the euro and US dollar. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term to longer-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts we also update EUR/USD daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading EUR/USD:

 

 

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jun 02, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-06-02 00:00:00 GMT

Euro - U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) had initially went down to 1.2837. This fall had come after a strong resistance neat 55-day EMA. The recovery from there broke both resistances mentioned during last weekend and the pair went as high as 1.3061 before closing for the week at 1.2997.

EUR/USD Stuck Between Psychological 1.3000 And Trend Line Support

Written By : forexabode || 2013-05-26 01:31:18 GMT

EUR/USD had failed at 1.3042 and the fall from there broke the psychological support of 1.3000 again and the pair went as low as 1.2796. The support came at the emerging mid term support trend line. The price action is also bringing in a head and shoulder chart pattern and a break below 1.2745 will complete that pattern.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - May 26, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-05-26 00:00:00 GMT

Euro - U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) had dipped to 1.2796 during last to last week. The recovery from there took it to 1.2998 and during the last week the currency pair remained in a volatile sideways before closing for the week at 1.2931. Our overall outlook remains bearish for EUR/USD but we need to keep the following points in consideration.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Apr 28, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-04-28 00:00:00 GMT

Euro - U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) had some volatile moves around 200-day moving average but during the last week the price action has been mainly below that resistance level. The week's high was 1.3093 and the low was 1.2954 before the pair closed for the week at 1.3030. The failure to sustain below the 200-day moving average and also the failure to test 50% retracement of the downward move from 1.3711 to 1.2745 cast a bearish shadow.

EUR/USD Failed To Sustain The Momentum

Written By : forexabode || 2013-04-27 10:42:34 GMT

EUR/USD had gone as high as 1.3201 after a break over 200-day moving average resistance but could not sustain. The upward move had come after some struggle near 38.2% retracement of the downward move from 1.3711 to 1.2745. These two points were covered in this previous EUR/USD alert. The currency pair was unable to sustain above these both resistance and fell before testing the 50% retracement of the above mentioned move.

Daily review EUR/USD (19 April 2013)

Written By : dfmarkets || 2013-04-19 11:14:05 GMT

Fundamental analysis - The euro is relatively steady against the dollar this morning, trading in a narrow range at $1.3050-$1.3075, slightly higher from its Wednesday’s low, when it plummeted from $1.3191 to $1. 3011. Comments by German central bank governor Weidmann slumped investors’ confidence in the euro, which caused an immediate impact on its chart movement on Wednesday.

EUR/USD Struggling With 200-Day Moving Average And 38.2% Retracement

Written By : forexabode || 2013-04-13 07:48:58 GMT

This update is in continuation with this previous chart alert for EUR/USD. Please note that in the previous update we had purposefully ignored the low of 1.2745 and had considered 1.2750 as the low. This was because 1.2745 can be considered as a brief market noise. However 5 pips in such a big move do not really matter. EUR/USD has been struggling around 200-day moving average resistance and has not been able to sustain over it.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Apr 13, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-04-13 00:00:00 GMT

Euro - U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) mostly remained in a very volatile sideways mode after breaking over 200-day moving average resistance during the last week. The currency pair had gone as high as 1.3138 which was 4 pips above the resistance level mentioned by us 1 month back. The weekly closing was at 1.3111.

EUR/USD Breaks Over 200-Day Moving Average

Written By : forexabode || 2013-04-10 00:56:06 GMT

EUR/USD broke the 200-day moving average (1.3071) and went as high as 1.3103. This was the second bullish signal after the 5-day EMA had crossed over 22-day EMA. The green line is 5-day EMA, yellow is 22-day EMA, red is 55-day EMA and blue is 200-day SMA. EUR/USD daily chart with 2 bullish signals EUR/USD with 200-day moving average - a longer view However the fight with the resistances is not over.

EUR/USD At 200 Day Moving Average Resistance

Written By : forexabode || 2013-04-09 00:37:10 GMT

This alert is in continuation of yesterday's EUR/USD alert. EURUSD managed to break over 55-day EMA resistance and went as high as 1.3068. The resistance is coming just below the mentioned 200-day moving average which is currently at 1.3071. In case this resistance is broken then we will expect a move towards 1.3140/1.3160 resistance zone but a failure at this resistance may cause a pull back towards 1.2990/1.2980. EUR/USD daily chart

Interest Rate difference of EUR and USD

EUR to USD Interest Rates Comparison
 
Euro (EUR) interest rate
0.15%
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
EUR/USD interest rate comparison
0.10%

Overall Price-Action Trend of EUR/USD

Please refer the following monthly chart of 10-year historical price-action to check the overall EUR/USD trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for EUR/USD historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • Highs getting lower since the great fall during the economic crisis of 2008-2009.
  • EUR/USD faced very strong resistance near 1.5000 during past to attempts for recovery.
  • Repetitive support approximately in the range of 1.2000 to 1.2500.
  • Overall uptrend since mid-2012 and the prices are contained in a rising channel.
  • Good possibilities that  the currency pair may break over 1.4000. Incase such a break takes place then 1.4500 should be the next target.

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