EUR/USD - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

EUR/USD (Euro - US Dollar) outlook and forecast is presented by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of EUR/USD. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price-data which may span many years and have a longer-term view. This is also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the euro and US dollar. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term to longer-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts we also update EUR/USD daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price-action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the following resources for trading EUR/USD:

 

 

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jul 28, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-07-28 00:00:00 GMT

Euro - U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) broke out of the range as mentioned during the last weekend. The currency pair went as high as 1.3297. Some resistance was felt just below the mentioned 1.3300 level before the weekly closing at 1.3279. The highlights of the week was a decisive break over the 61.8% retracement of the fall from 1.3417 to 1.2755.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jul 21, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-07-21 00:00:00 GMT

Euro - U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) tried to break below 1.3000 but could not sustain and immediately jumped up from 1.2993. The price action remained in the sideways mode between 1.2993 and 1.3178. The weekly closing was at 1.3142. The near-term outlook stays neutral for EUR/USD. The price action has been around 200-day moving average where the moving average is neither working as support nor resistance.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jul 14, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-07-14 00:00:00 GMT

Euro - U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) had gone as low as 1.2755 but the strong jump of 452 pips had taken it to 1.3207 before the currency pair closed for the week at 1.3067 after hitting 1.2999. The strong jump of 452 pips in one day had brought some short-term bullish sentiments in the picture. The fall after the jump found support just 1 pip below the psychological level and that suggests that the psychological support is working.

EUR/USD Against Two Resistances - Forex Chart Alerts

Written By : forexabode || 2013-07-13 23:28:32 GMT

EUR/USD had a very strong upward jump during last week when the pair moved up from 1.2755 to 1.3207 i.e. 452 pips in a matter of a single day. This move broke above the 200-day moving average resistance but could not sustain and the price action fell below this resistance once again.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jun 30, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-06-30 00:00:00 GMT

Euro - U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) moved as expected and mentioned during the last week end. except that the fact that the resistance came much below 1.3220 and the currency pair dropped further after touching 1.3150. The fall took it to as low as 1.2984 before EURUSD closed for the week at 1.3010. The strong fall and the effort to break below 1.3000 psychological level keep the bearish outlook intact.

EUR/USD Testing the 200-Day Moving Average Support Again

Written By : forexabode || 2013-06-23 00:18:40 GMT

EUR/USD's failure ahead of February 20th's 1.3434 is casting bearish shadows for the pair yet again. Though we will be discussing about this in the weekend outlook for the currency pair but let's see some of the observations of the charts. Double bottom pattern The above weekly chart shows the double top pattern on the weekly chart.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jun 23, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-06-23 00:00:00 GMT

Euro - U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) moved as expected and mentioned during the last week end. The currency pair went slightly above the mentioned 1.3414 but failed before touching 1.3434 and fell strongly. The pair went as low as 1.3098 before closing for the week at 1.3121. The failure not only below the psychological 1.3500 level but most importantly below the mentioned 1.3434 of February 20th has brought back the bearish outlook for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jun 16, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-06-16 00:00:00 GMT

Euro - U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) found the support just over the mentioned 1.3170 and then broke the resistances indicated and then moved up as we had mentioned during the last weekend and The pair went as high as 1.3390 and face resistance before the 1.3500 psychological territory which would start over 1.3400. After falling into a sideways range the weekly closing was at 1.3346.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Jun 09, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-06-09 00:00:00 GMT

Euro - U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) broke the resistances indicated and then moved up as we had mentioned during the last weekend. The pair went as high as 1.3306 and found strong resistance 13 pips below the mentioned 1.3319 resistance and closed for the week at 1.3218.

EUR/USD Below 200-Day Moving Average

Written By : forexabode || 2013-06-02 01:07:14 GMT

One of the chart alert posted during last weekend had indicated the struggle of EUR/USD below the psychological 1.3000 level as well as 55-day EMA resistance. The currency pair has broken above both of those. You may please check this previous EUR/USD alert. While the pair has broken both of these resistances, is seems to be finding resistance below a stronger 200-day moving average.

Interest Rate difference of EUR and USD

EUR to USD Interest Rates Comparison
 
Euro (EUR) interest rate
0.15%
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
EUR/USD interest rate comparison
0.10%

Overall Price-Action Trend of EUR/USD

Please refer the following monthly chart of 10-year historical price-action to check the overall EUR/USD trend.

Monthly chart of EUR/USD, indicating the overall trend.

 

Main observations for EUR/USD historical price-action and outlook for the near future

  • Highs getting lower since the great fall during the economic crisis of 2008-2009.
  • EUR/USD faced very strong resistance near 1.5000 during past to attempts for recovery.
  • Repetitive support approximately in the range of 1.2000 to 1.2500.
  • Overall uptrend since mid-2012 and the prices are contained in a rising channel.
  • Good possibilities that  the currency pair may break over 1.4000. Incase such a break takes place then 1.4500 should be the next target.

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