AUD/USD - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

AUD/USD (Australian versus US dollar) outlook and forecast is written by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of AUD/USD. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price data which may span many years and have a longer-term view. These are also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the Aussie and the US dollar. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term to longer-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts we also update AUD/USD daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the daily resistance and support levels at AUD/USD pivot points.

 

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Dec 07, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-12-07 00:00:00 GMT

AUD/USD found resistance at 0.9168 and then fell to 0.8989 before recovering to 0.9117 and then closing for the week at 0.9099. The over price action suggests the underlying bearish sentiments but the price action of past 3 trading days, with the wide gap in the lows and open/close, combined with the support well over the key support level of 0.8960 indicates the possibilities of further recovery.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Nov 30, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-11-30 00:00:00 GMT

AUD/USD had tried to move up to 0.9447 after out previous update which was 2 weeks back. The move had broken above the indicated resistance of 0.9427 but strong resistance was witnessed just 20 pips above that and the pair dropped strongly to 0.9055 before closing for the last week at 0.9108. The strong fall has brought back the bearish outlook back into the picture.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Nov 17, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-11-17 00:00:00 GMT

AUD/USD moved as we had indicated during the last weekend. The pair even broke below the 0.9281 support to go as low as 0.9268 but found immediate and strong support and recovered to 0.9386. After a volatile sideways moved the weekly closing was at 0.9368. The failure to go down to the 61.8% retracement of the upward gains from 0.8892 to 0.9758 i.e.

AUD/USD - Let the charts speak

Written By : forexabode || 2013-11-10 01:02:55 GMT

This is a chart alert and hence let's keep the words to the minimum and let the AUD/USD charts speak. What we will be focusing on the facts that the pair has broken some critical supports, for example 22-day, EMA, 55-day EMA, 200-day moving average and also the previous support e.g. 0.9388. Out of these some previous supports like 22-day EMA seem to have turned into resistance.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Nov 09, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-11-09 00:00:00 GMT

AUD/USD had broken below 0.9524 support and then moved as we had indicated 2 weeks back. The pair went as low as 0.9352 before closing for the week at 0.9385. The strong fall keep the bearish sentiments intact. This is especially as the pair has broken below various supports. The first was the 22-day EMA support which seems to have turned into resistance now.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Oct 26, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-10-26 00:00:00 GMT

Aussie - US Dollar (AUD/USD) had completed the 50% retracement as we had indicated during last weekend. The pair went as high as 0.9757 before dropping to 0.9572 and then closed for the week at 0.9585.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Oct 19, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-10-19 00:00:00 GMT

Aussie - US Dollar (AUD/USD) rose sharply and broke over the 0.9666 resistance mentioned by us two weeks back. The currency pair went as high as 0.9679 and closed very bullishly at 0.9677. The second break after the psychological level of 0.9500, after failing the first time, and the strong upward jump thereafter brings keep the short-term bullish outlook intact for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Oct 05, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-10-05 00:00:00 GMT

Aussie - US Dollar (AUD/USD) had gone down as consolidation exactly as we had indicated 2 weeks back. The currency pair went 4 pips below the mentioned 0.9285 and then went up to 0.9458 before closing for the week at 0.9434. Earlier when AUD/USD was falling, it had been finding resistance near 55-day EMA.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Sep 20, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-09-20 00:00:00 GMT

Aussie - US Dollar (AUD/USD) broke over 0.9254 and then moved as we had indicated during the last weekend. The currency pair went as high as 0.9528 before falling to 0.9377 and then closing for the week at 0.9393. The break over the psychological level of 0.9500 and then the 38.2% retracement of the downward move from 1.0582 to 0.8842 had indicated the possibilities for some further gains.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Sep 14, 2013

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2013-09-14 00:00:00 GMT

Aussie - US Dollar (AUD/USD) moved as expected from the last week's outlook update. The pair went as high as 0.9354 but fell sharply to 0.9223 before closing for the week at 0.9245. The break above 0.9345 was a positive sign to expect further upward consolidation but the break was very brief and the failure came just 9 pips above that resistance.

Interest rate difference of AUD and USD

AUD to USD Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
Australian dollar (AUD) interest rate
2.50%
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
AUD/USD interest rate comparison
2.25%

Overall Price Action Trend of AUD/USD

AUD/USD historical chart of 10 years showing the overall trend.

In 2008 the Australian dollar came close to parity level with the US dollar but failed at 0.9849 and went down very strongly to 0.6013. It was during October 2010 when the currency pair finally broke over the parity as you may see on the above historical price-action chart of AUD/USD.

From October 2010 to April 2013 the currency pair has been trying to sustain above the parity level but lost momentum. During the period it broke below the parity level but it was May 2013 when it had a decisive break below the parity level and since then it has been staying below that level.

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