AUD/USD - Analysis, Outlook and Forecasts

AUD/USD (Australian versus US dollar) outlook and forecast is written by the team of ForexAbode's in-house analysts and is followed by the traders around the world. The outlook takes into account the various factors which can affect the future price-action of AUD/USD. The factors to analyze the outlook are geo-political news, fundamentals including major economic releases and technical factors but most importantly we focus on the price-action analysis.

 

The outlook reflects our views for short-term to mid-term movement. However, sometimes the analysis takes into account the price data which may span many years and have a longer-term view. These are also supported by our very popular chart alerts.

 

The weekly analysis includes the predictions for the next week's expected moves for the Aussie and the US dollar. However, the forecast is not only limited to the coming week but is applicable for the overall expectations for the near-term to longer-term. Apart from the weekly forecasts we also update AUD/USD daily technical analysis, which presents our views about the price action from short-term perspective.

 

You may also like to check the daily resistance and support levels at AUD/USD pivot points.

 

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Apr 28, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-04-28 00:00:00 GMT

1. Australia (AUD): Producer Price Index: Year on year PPI change 1.4%, quite negative as compared to the forecasts (2.2%) as well as the previous 2.9%. Same with month on month change which was -0.3% against the expected 0.4% and previous 0.3%. 2. Australia (AUD): CPI: Year on year change 1.6%, negative as compared to the forecasts (2.1%) as well as the previous 3.1%.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Apr 21, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-04-21 00:00:00 GMT

1. Australian $: Conference Board Australia Leading Index: 0.2% against the previous 0.6%. 2. Australian $: National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence: -1, against the previous 1. 3. US$: Retail Sales (MoM): 0.8%, positive as compared to the forecasts (0.3%) but less than the previous 1.0%. 4. US$: Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM): 0.8%, positive as compared to the forecasts (0.6%) as well as the previous (0.9%). 5.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Apr 14, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-04-14 00:00:00 GMT

1. Australia: AiG Performance of Construction Index: 36.2 against the previous 35.6. 2. Australia: National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence: 3 against the previous 1. 3. Australia: Westpac Consumer Confidence: -1.6% against the previous -5.0%. 4. Australia: Home Loans: -2.5%, better than the forecasts of -3.5% but poorer than the previous -1.1%. 5.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Mar 25, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-03-25 00:00:00 GMT

1. Australia (A$): Conference Board Australia Leading Index: 1.1% and hence positive against the previous -0.3%. 2. US($): Existing home Sales Change: -0.9%, negative as compared to the forecasts (1.1%) as well as the previous 5.7%. 3. US($): Leading Indicators (MoM): 0.7%, positive as compared to the forecast (0.7%) as well as the previous 0.2%. 4.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Mar 11, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-03-11 00:00:00 GMT

1. Australia (A$): AiG Performance of Services Index: 56.7 against the previous 51.9. 2. Australia (A$): AiG performance of Construction Index: 35.6 against the previous 39.8. 3. Australia (A$): TD Securities Inflation (YoY): 2.0% against the previous 2.2%. 4. Australia (A$): Current Account Balance (Q4): AUD -8.37B, negative as compared to the forecasts (-7.90B AUD)as well as the previous -5.82 B Australian Dollars. 5.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Mar 03, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-03-03 00:00:00 GMT

1. Australia (A$): HIA New Home Sales (MoM): -7.3% and hence quite poor than the previous -4.9%. 2. Australia (A$): Private Sector Credit: Year on year data 3.5% was slightly less than the expectated 3.6% but remained same as the previous release. Month on month change 0f 0.2% was slightly less than the expectations and previous release of 0.3%. 3.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Feb 19, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-02-19 00:00:00 GMT

1. Australia (A$): Home Loans: 2.3%, positive as compared to the forecasts (2.0%) as well as the previous 1.8%). 2. Australia (A$): National Australia Bank's Business Confidence: 4 against the previous 3. 3. Australia (A$): Westpac Consumer Confidence: 4.2% and quite better than the previous 2.4%. 4. Australia (A$): Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, positive as compared to the forecast (5.3%) as well as the previous 5.2%. 5.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Feb 12, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-02-12 00:00:00 GMT

1. Australia: TD Securities Inflation: Year on year 2.2% against the previous 2.4%. Month on month was 0.2% against the previous 0.5%. 2. Australia: Retail Sales (MoM): -0.1%, negative as compared to the forecast (0.2%) as well as the previous release (0.1%). 3. Australia: AiG Performance of Construction Index: 39.8 against the previous 41.0. 4.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Feb 04, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-02-04 00:00:00 GMT

1. Australia: National Australia Bank's Business Confidence: 3 against the previous 2. The data for Business Conditions remained same as the previous release of 1. 2. Australia: HIA New Home Sales (MoM): -4.9%, quite negative against the previous 4.4%. 3. Australia: Building Permits: Both year on year and month on month data was quite negative. MoM -1.0% against the forecast of 2.0% and previous release of 10.1%.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook - Jan 28, 2012

Written By : ForexAbode.com || 2012-01-28 00:00:00 GMT

1. Australia: PPI (QoQ): Quarter on quarter 0.3%, negative as compared to the forecast (0.5%) as well as the previous release (0.6%). 2. Australia: PPI (YoY): Year on year PPI was 2.9% and though slightly less than than the forecast of 3.0% but better than the previous 2.7%. 3. Australia: Conference Board Australia Leading Index: -0.3%, negative as compared to the previous 0.5%. 4.

Interest rate difference of AUD and USD

AUD to USD Interest Rates Comparison
(For Carry Trades)
Australian dollar (AUD) interest rate
2.50%
US Dollar (USD) interest rate
0.25%
AUD/USD interest rate comparison
2.25%

Overall Price Action Trend of AUD/USD

AUD/USD historical chart of 10 years showing the overall trend.

In 2008 the Australian dollar came close to parity level with the US dollar but failed at 0.9849 and went down very strongly to 0.6013. It was during October 2010 when the currency pair finally broke over the parity as you may see on the above historical price-action chart of AUD/USD.

From October 2010 to April 2013 the currency pair has been trying to sustain above the parity level but lost momentum. During the period it broke below the parity level but it was May 2013 when it had a decisive break below the parity level and since then it has been staying below that level.

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