USD/JPY: Current 90.56 (Sunday, March 14, 2010). Trend: Weak uptrend.

Please refer daily charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly charts.

Please note the following:

1) US: The recent economic releases from US have been generally good. Retail sales and trade balance reports were quite good but employment reports were negative.

2) Japan: There have not been any important economic releases from Japan during the past week but Japan’s economy grew less than initially estimated last quarter.

3) The sentiment that there is global recovery always makes way for carry trade and that weakens Japanese Yen.

Analysis: Though we expect that this currency pair should move up towards 91.50 and possibly 91.80 in the coming days but we are keeping away from taking any mid-term positions for USD/JPY. For a more speculative trade a buy position can be entered with a stop-loss at 89.70 and take-profit target of first at 91.20 and then 91.60. 

In any case we would suggest not to have a stop-loss below 89.50 for any long (buy) position because if the currency pair breaks down to that level then there will be a very high probability for it to move further down.

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For short term trades, please refer to daily technical analysis for USD/JPY