• US: Durable Goods Orders: 3.0%, positive as compared to the forecasts of 2.0% but less than the previous 4.3%.
• US: Jobless Claims: Initial claims 377K were negative as compared to the forecast (374K) as well as the previous 356K. Continuing claims 3.554M were also poor against the forecasts of 3.50M and previous 3.466M.
• US: Leading Indicators (MoM): 0.4%, negative as compared to the forecast of 0.7% but quite better than the previous 0.2%.
• US: New Home Sales (MoM): 0.307M, negative as compared to the forecasts (0.320M) as well as the previous release (0.314M).
• US: GDP Annualized -prelim: 2.8%, less than the forecasts of 3.0% but quite better than the previous 1.8%.
• US: GDP Price Index -prelim: 0.4%, quite negative as compared to the forecast (2.0%) as well as the previous release (2.6%).
• US: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ): 1.1%, negative as compared to the forecasts (2.3%) as well as the previous release (2.1%).
• US: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 75.0, positive as compared to the forecast (73.9) as well as the previous release (69.9).
• Japan: Merchandise Trade Balance (Total): -205.1B Yen, though less than the forecast of -154.9B Yen but quite better than the previous JPY -684.7B.
• Japan: national CPI (YoY): -0.2%, same as the forecasts but much better than the previous -0.5%. Same with year on year National CPI ex Fresh Food which was same as the forecast (-0.1%) but better than the previous -0.2%.
• Japan: Retail Trade (YoY): 2.5%, positive as compared to the forecasts (2.3%) as well as the previous release (-2.2%).
• Japan: large Retailers' Sales: -0.4%, positive as compared to the forecast (-0.5%) as well as the previous (-2.5%).
Dollar-Yen (USD/JPY)- Technical Trend Analysis:
1) ADX:USDJPY daily +DI line which was over -DI line with a wide gap dropped down sharply and the gap has narrowed down drastically. ADX, which was rising to indicate an increasing bullish move, has started slopping down before reaching 25 (approx 21.30 now).
2) MACD:USDJPY daily MACD line had crossed over the signal line 2-weeks back and had moved up sharply with a wide gap but dropped down equally sharply and though no downward crossover has taken place as yet, but it is almost touching the signal line. 4-hourly MACD line’s last crossover was going below the signal line. It was a sharp crossover and it stays below the signal line with a wide gap.
3) Ichimoku Cloud:Tenkan-sen had crossed over Kijun sen to give a weak bullish signal. The price had broken over the lower and upper edge of an extremely thin cloud but dropped strongly below the thin cloud again. No further crossover signal has taken place as yet.
Dollar-Yen (USDJPY) - Forecast /Outlook:
Previous Outlook of USDJPY:
“The first thing we would be watching is for a break over 76.36 (January 6th resistance) to expect further upward move. Even with that break we would expect a good resistance near 77.50 or a little above daily Ichimoku cloud’s lower edge resistance level. A break over that should take USDJPY towards 77.80 or the upper edge resistance of the daily Ichimoku cloud and then 78.22 and only a break above that will make us expect further upward gains towards 79.50.”
This week:
Well, the Dollar-Yen pair broke the resistance we had mentioned that we would be watching 9as quoted above) and moved up to 78.22 as mentioned last weekend. The currency pair touched 78.28 and had a strong fall from there. Please also take a look about this resistance in the post under the subforum names “Watchouts-Observations-Alerts” under our Forex forum.
The recent drop came from a zone which had proved to be a very strong resistance area from November 4th to December 28th, 2011 and turns the focus downwards again or for another extended sideways move.
On the downside the break of the support at 76.55 is important to expect further downward movement. A break of that would again bring frequent supports near 76.40, 76.20 and 76.00 because of the upcoming psychological level of 75.00 ranges. Overall on the downside a strong break below 75.80 and some sustained action below 75.80 would make us expect deeper movements
On the upside, if USDJPY breaks over 77.32/77.38, which is little over the upper edge resistance of the daily Ichimoku cloud as well as represents a previous resistance then we will again go neutral for the currency pair and would expect a retest of the resent 78.28 and possibly more upward correction.
This is not for the next week but overall we stay bearish for USDJPY for the longer-term basis at least till a firm break of 85.52 does not take place and this level becomes a support level instead of resistance. We have been mentioning the following and stay with this outlook:
“We would repeat what we have been mentioning that the psychological support of 75.00 should prove to be quite strong and hence any downward move should not have a great momentum and should only be coming with frequent sideways moves. As mentioned during last weekend, if a break below 75.00 takes place then also we expect a strong support first near 74.80 and then over 74.20."
Strategies for trading USDJPY (US Dollar-Yen):
As mentioned above, that though overall our outlook is bearish but we will be watching for the breaks of the above mentioned support before taking any positions. Overall we are keeping away from tarking USDJPY because the movement has been completely without any firm direction and in very narrow ranges.
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For short term currency trades, please refer to daily technical analysis for US Dollars /Japanese Yen at USD/JPY daily analysis. Please also share and check any real-time trades of Dollar-Yen in Forum. You may also check the USDJPY current market sentiments.
| Dollar/Yen Interest Rates (Carry Trade) |
0.25% |
0.10% |
0.15% |
