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Forex Analysis |
Daily Technical Analysis
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Dollar-Franc | USDCHF Forecast / Outook & Trading Strategies @ ForexAbode
USDCHF
Last Updated (Sunday, 29 January 2012 12:31) GMT
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Dollar-Franc (USDCHF) - Daily Chart
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US Dollar Franc (USDCHF) - Forecast / Outlook
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Dollar-Franc (USDCHF): Current 0.9127 (Sunday, January 29, 2011).
USDCHF Trend: Up.
Dollar-Franc (USD CHF) Outlook: Consolidation during uptrend. More downward correction.
Please refer daily currency charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly Forex charts.
USDCHF (Dollar Franc) - Recent economic releases:
• US: Durable Goods Orders: 3.0%, positive as compared to the forecasts of 2.0% but less than the previous 4.3%.
• US: Jobless Claims: Initial claims 377K were negative as compared to the forecast (374K) as well as the previous 356K. Continuing claims 3.554M were also poor against the forecasts of 3.50M and previous 3.466M.
• US: Leading Indicators (MoM): 0.4%, negative as compared to the forecast of 0.7% but quite better than the previous 0.2%.
• US: New Home Sales (MoM): 0.307M, negative as compared to the forecasts (0.320M) as well as the previous release (0.314M).
• US: GDP Annualized -prelim: 2.8%, less than the forecasts of 3.0% but quite better than the previous 1.8%.
• US: GDP Price Index -prelim: 0.4%, quite negative as compared to the forecast (2.0%) as well as the previous release (2.6%).
• US: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ): 1.1%, negative as compared to the forecasts (2.3%) as well as the previous release (2.1%).
• US: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 75.0, positive as compared to the forecast (73.9) as well as the previous release (69.9).
• Swiss: KOF Leading Indicator: -0.17, quite negative as compared to the forecasts (-0.07) as well as the previous release (0.01).
Dollar-Franc (USD CHF) - Technical Trend Analysis:
1) MACD: USDCHF daily MACD line remains below the signal line with continuously widening gap. 4-hourly MACD line’s last crossover was below the signal line It stays below it and every subsequent peak and bottom has been getting lower since the beginning of the previous week.
2) ADX:USDCHF daily +DI lineremains below -DI line with a wide gap. ADX is below 25 but is rising (approx 21.50).
3) Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan-sen had crossed below Kijun-sen weakly to give a weak bearish signal as the crossover was over the cloud. The price broke below the lower edge support level of a very thin cloud to close much below it for the week.
Dollar-Franc (USDCHF) - Forecast /Outlook:
Previous Outlook of USDCHF :
“To expect further downward consolidation a break of 0.9305/0.9300 is required. On the downside if a strong break below 0.9305/0.9300 takes place then we would expect a good support in the range of 0.9200/0.9240. A move to 0.9200 will only be considered as the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the slow upward move during October 27th, 2011 to January 8th, 2012. A break below 0.9200 would start making our short-term outlook bearish to expect some more downward move towards the 0.9065/0.9090 level and then possibly towards 0.8965."
This week:
Well, dollar-franc pair broke the supports mentioned during the last weekends and quoted above and even broke below 0.9200 to touch 0.9114 and to close with strong short-term bearish sentiments at 0.9128.
The strong drop and price action of the last week suggest that we can expect some more downward correction towards the next support level of 0.9064/0.9065. This level represents the support level during the beginning of December 2011 and is also near the Fibonacci 50% retracement of the upward move during October 27th, 2011 to January 8th, 2012.
On the downside a firm break of this and then the psychological level of 0.9000 may take USDCHF towards 0.8950 or the Fibonacci 61.2% retracement level of the above mentioned upward move. Our mid-term outlook will start changing to bearish only with a firm break of this and then 0.8800 support to expect any move towards the low of 0.8567.
On the upside, a break over 0.9340 will again start changing our focus towards upside and this will get confirmed with a firm break over 0.9415 to expect a retest of 0.9596.
Strategies for trading USDCHF (US Dollar-Swiss Franc):
As mentioned above, the overall outlook for USDCHF is bullish but we expect some more downward correction initially. We will initially be on short-selling side considering the above mentioned support and resistance levels.
(Please join the News Letter or Register to get email alerts when Forex analysis/forecasts for Dollar-Swiss Franc are updated)
For short term Forex trades, please refer to daily technical analysis for US Dollar/Swiss Franc at USD/CHF.
You may also share and check any real-time trading positions for Dollar-Franc in forum and the current USDCHF market sentiments.
Dollar/Franc Interest Rate Comparison
(For Carry Trades) |
0.25% |
0.00% |
0.25% |
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