EUR/USD: Current 1.3625 (Sunday, March 7, 2010).  Trend: The recent downtrend slowing up. A mid-term reversal is possible.

Please refer daily charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly charts.

Fundamentals:
 
1) US: The recent economic releases from US have been mixed. Pending home sale report was quite negative. Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.7% which was positive but nonfarm payroll was quite bad.

2) Europe: In general the economic releases were positive especially the German factory order report was quite good. The problem of that Greece may not be able to control its fiscal deficit still has downward pressure on Euro but no further negative news have been there. 

Hence fundamentally and considering the market sentiments, the downward pressure of EUR/USD should ease off during the coming days.

Technicals and Market perception:

1) The recent bottom of Feb 24th failed to touch the bottom price of Feb 18th. The bottom of March 2nd was a bit lower but the prices jumped immediately and closed for the day at higher level. The downtrend is clearly slowing down. The downtrend is clearly slowing down and EUR/USD is in oversold position.

2) There is a nearly perfect triple bottom chart pattern on daily chart and current price level is at the neck-line (please see important chart patterns on Winning Strategy page).

Analysis:  We expect the currency pair to move up to 1.3740 in coming days even though this currency pair may go down to 1.3550 to test that level.   EUR/USD may get some resistance 1.3740 but if it breaks above then it should move upward to 1.3860 in the coming days.

Approach: Buying with a stop-loss not below 1.3515 and take-profit target of first 1.3740 and then 1.3840.

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For short term trades, please refer to daily technical analysis for EUR/USD.