EUR/USD: Current 1.3769 (Sunday, March 14, 2010).  Trend: The recent downtrend slowing up. A mid-term reversal is possible.

Please refer daily charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly charts.

Fundamentals:

1) US: The recent economic releases from US have been generally good. Retail sales and trade balance reports were quite good but employment reports were negative.

2) Europe: In general the economic releases were positive especially manufacturing and consumer price Index but trade balance was negative.

Technicals and Market perception:

1) The recent bottom of Feb 24th had failed to touch the bottom price of Feb 18th. The bottom of March 2nd was a bit lower but the prices jumped immediately and closed for the day at higher level. The downtrend is clearly slowing down. The downtrend is clearly slowing down and EUR/USD is in oversold position.

2) There is a nearly perfect triple bottom chart pattern on daily chart and current price level crossed the neck-line (please see important chart patterns on Winning Strategy page).

3) The 9-day SMA line crossed over the 90-day SMA line.

Analysis:  The current price level may offer some resistance but we expect this currency pair to move up to 1.3880 in the coming days. 

Approach: Buying with a stop-loss not below 1.3660 and take-profit target of first 1.3860 and then 1.3900

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For short term trades, please refer to daily technical analysis for EUR/USD.