Australian Dollar-US Dollar (AUDUSD) Forecast / Outlook @ ForexAbode

• Australia: PPI (QoQ): Quarter on quarter 0.3%, negative as compared to the forecast (0.5%) as well as the previous release (0.6%).
• Australia: PPI (YoY): Year on year PPI was 2.9% and though slightly less than the forecast of 3.0% but better than the previous 2.7%.
• Australia: Conference Board Australia Leading Index: -0.3%, negative as compared to the previous 0.5%.
• Australia: CPI: Year on year 3.1% against the forecast of 3.3% and previous 3.5%. Month on month data was 0.0% against the forecast of 0.2% and previous release of 0.6%).

• US: Durable Goods Orders: 3.0%, positive as compared to the forecasts of 2.0% but less than the previous 4.3%.
• US: Jobless Claims: Initial claims 377K were negative as compared to the forecast (374K) as well as the previous 356K. Continuing claims 3.554M were also poor against the forecasts of 3.50M and previous 3.466M.
• US: Leading Indicators (MoM): 0.4%, negative as compared to the forecast of 0.7% but quite better than the previous 0.2%.
• US: New Home Sales (MoM): 0.307M, negative as compared to the forecasts (0.320M) as well as the previous release (0.314M).
• US: GDP Annualized -prelim: 2.8%, less than the forecasts of 3.0% but quite better than the previous 1.8%.
• US: GDP Price Index -prelim: 0.4%, quite negative as compared to the forecast (2.0%) as well as the previous release (2.6%).
• US: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ): 1.1%, negative as compared to the forecasts (2.3%) as well as the previous release (2.1%).
• US: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 75.0, positive as compared to the forecast (73.9) as well as the previous release (69.9).

Australian Dollar-US Dollar (AUDUSD)- Technicals Trend Analysis:

1) MACD: AUDUSD daily MACD and its signal line were practically running horizontal with frequent weak crossovers and practically no gap. The last crossover was by MACD line moving above the signal line. The gap had started widening since last to last week and that trend continues.  4-hourly MACD line’s last crossover was above the signal line but the earlier wide gap narrowed down suddenly as the MACD started running flat and is now touching the signal line.  Please note that it is not dropping down but is just running horizontal.
   
2) ADX: AUDUSD daily +DI had crossed over -DI line and the gap has been widening. ADX is well below 25 but is rising (approx 18.95). ADX is not showing a trend on daily chart but some more upward movement should take place.

3) Ichimoku cloud: The last crossover was Tenkan-sen going over Kijun-sen. The crossover had taken place just at the lower edge of the cloud and was a weak bullish signal but the price had stron upward gains since then. Just after the crossover the price had been getting support over the Kijun-sen level (since December 30th) but for past 16 trading days it has started getting support well over Tenkan-sen leve, indicating some strength of bullish sentiment. The chart can be seen from a link given under the outlook section.
 

AUD-US Dollar (AUDUSD) - Forecast/Outlook:

Previous Outlook of AUDUSD:

“The recent price action and the formation of the ascending parallel channel of support and resistance trend-lines, make us expect further upward movement with a break of 1.0500 psychological resistance. On the upside, a firm break over the psychological resistance of 1.0500 will make us expect some convincing upward gains towards 1.0610 and then probably 1.0720.”

This Week:

The Aussie-Dollar pair moved up, as mentioned during the last weekend and quoted above, and went as high as 1.0688 i.e. little below the mentioned 1.0720. The currency pair found some resistance there and took a correction towards 1.0592 but jumped up again to close for the week at 1.0667.
 
AUDUSD is approaching a resistance zone and there may be some sideways moves initially but we would expect a support over 1.0470 and overall we exect further upwards gains towards 1.0720/1.0765. The resistance in this zone will be a critical factor to expect further upward gains. If the currency pair manages a firm break over 1.0765 then we will expect further upward move towards first 1.1000 resistance and with a break over that towards 1.1079 high.

On the downside, as mentioned above, the support of 1.0470 is important. This support is current 22-day EMA. If there is a firm break of this support then we would expect the next support near Kijun-sen level of daily Ichimoku cloud i.e. 1.0415/1.0410 and a break of that should bring further downward correction towards 55-dayy EAM i.e. 1.0320. Only a break of this support zone will change our focus towards convincing reversal of the current upward move.

Overall we stay bullish for AUDUSD but need to keep an eye for the approaching resistance levels and a break over those to have the retest of the previous high as mentioned above or even a further upward move.

Strategies for trading Aussie Dollar/US Dollar (AUDUSD):

As mentioned above, we expect some more upward move for AUDUSD. We are and will be on buying side but carefully considering the resistance and support levels mentioned above.  
  

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For short term Forex trades, please refer to daily technical analysis for Austrailan Dollar/US Dollar at AUD/USD.
You may also share and check any real-time trading positions for Aussie Dollar-US Dollar in Forum and also the current AUD/USD market sentiments.

Aussie/Dollar Interest Rate Comparison (For Carry Trades)

4.75%

0.25%

4.50%