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AUDJPY (Aussie Dollar-Yen): Current 81.73 (Sunday, January 29, 2011).
Aussie Dollar-Yen Trend: Overall volatile sideways but short-term is up.
AUDJPY Outlook: Up but carefully considering the resistance zone.
Please refer daily currency charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly Forex charts.
AUDJPY (Aussie Dollar-Yen)-Recent economic releases:
• Australia: PPI (QoQ): Quarter on quarter 0.3%, negative as compared to the forecast (0.5%) as well as the previous release (0.6%).
• Australia: PPI (YoY): Year on year PPI was 2.9% and though slightly less than the forecast of 3.0% but better than the previous 2.7%.
• Australia: Conference Board Australia Leading Index: -0.3%, negative as compared to the previous 0.5%.
• Australia: CPI: Year on year 3.1% against the forecast of 3.3% and previous 3.5%. Month on month data was 0.0% against the forecast of 0.2% and previous release of 0.6%).
• Japan: Merchandise Trade Balance (Total): -205.1B Yen, though less than the forecast of -154.9B Yen but quite better than the previous JPY -684.7B.
• Japan: national CPI (YoY): -0.2%, same as the forecasts but much better than the previous -0.5%. Same with year on year National CPI ex Fresh Food which was same as the forecast (-0.1%) but better than the previous -0.2%.
• Japan: Retail Trade (YoY): 2.5%, positive as compared to the forecasts (2.3%) as well as the previous release (-2.2%).
• Japan: large Retailers' Sales: -0.4%, positive as compared to the forecast (-0.5%) as well as the previous (-2.5%).
AUDJPY - Technical Trend Analysis:
1) MACD: AUDJPY daily MACD stays over the signal line but the gap which was continuously widening has recently stopped doing it. 4-hourly MACD line’s last crossover was going below the signal line. It was a sharp crossover and it stays below the signal line with a wide gap.
2) ADX: AUDJPY daily +DI line had crossed over -DI line and the gap had been widening up but has narrowed down a bit. ADX is well below 25 but is rising (approx 17.60). A no trend situation on daily chart but some more upward movement should take place.
3) Ichimoku cloud: Tenkan-sen crossed over Kijun-sen. The crossover configuration (over the cloud) was a strong bullish configuration. The gap between Kijun-sen and Tenkan sen has been widening and the price action has been getting support at or over Tenkan-sen level, indicating some strength of bullish configuration. After 8 trading days it managed to have a break below Tenkan-sen support but closed for the week just over that.
Aussie Dollar-Yen (AUDJPY) - Forecast/Outlook:
Previous Outlook of USDJPY:
“Australian Dollar-Yen pair seems to get some life after many days. The currency pair broke over the resistance of 79.75 first and then 80.52 and then, as we had mentioned during last weekend (quoted above), it moved to 80.87. Our stand remains the same as we had mentioned during the last weekend than now we look forward to some more upward move towards 81.40/81.50. On the upside any strong break over 81.50 should take AUDJPY towards the next resistance zone between 82.45 to 82.80."
This Week:
Well, Australian Dollar-Yen pair moved the way we had indicated during the last weekend. We had mentioned a move towards 82.80 but the currency pair moved a bit more to 82.85 before finding some resistance there. The resistance took it down to 81.43 before a weekly close at 81.73.
The interesting pint to note is that the resistance came exactly at the previous to previous high of September 1st, 2011 (please check this AUDJPY chart for resistances). Our outlook stays same for some more upward move but we need to watch for a couple of points. The downward move for past 2 trading days indicate that we cannot ignore some more downward correction. Hence on the downside we need to keep an eye for a break below the recent 81.43 and then 81.40. Such a break should bring some more downward correction towards the range of 80.65/80.60 (22-days EMA) to 80.45 ((daily Ichimoku cloud’s Kijun-sen support level). Here the psychological support of 80.00 will also start working. Only any firm break below this will change our short term focus for some convincing downward move towards 79.20.
As we mentioned that we expect some more upward moves, a break over the recent 82.85 (also Sep 1st, 2011’s resistance level as mentioned above), should bring further gains towards the recent high of 83.95 (October 30th, 2011). This level should bring a strong resistance and a break over that will open the door for a move towards the psychological 85.00 level first and then 86.20.
Strategies for trading AUDJPY (Aus Dollar-Yen):
As mentioned above, we expect some more upward gain. We plan to be on buying side but for the short-term positions and considering the above mentioned support and resistance levels. We will keep an eye on the breaks of the mentioned resistance levels to expect some convincing higher gains.
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For short term Forex trades, please refer to daily technical analysis for Australian dollar/Japanese Yen at AUD/JPY daily analysis.
You may also share and check any real-time trading positions for AUDJPY in Forum and also the current AUD/JPY market sentiments.
Aussie/Yen Interest rate Comparison
(For Carry Trade) |
4.75% |
0.10% |
4.65% |
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